Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: equity markets
Our view of the Equity market over the next few years calls for a choppy market that will reward Active Managers and penalize the Buy & Hold crowd. This forthcoming "choppy" market will not be a market where most Technology stocks move up or down, or where certain sectors move in unison. Rather, we are … Continue reading The Return of Active Management
It would have made for great theater if the Fed truly wanted to win the war against inflation. Unfortunately, the Fed already blinked. If the Fed's mission truly was to get CPI back down to 2%, the valuation froth that began to manifest in 2019 peaking with 2021's valuation mania (which made the 1999-2000 dot … Continue reading The Fed Already Blinked
Consider the Fintech and Information Services sector. Depending upon how you define it, the sector trades at approximately 30x Operating Cash Flow ("OCF"). If Company X generates $1 billion in Operating Cash Flow today, the Net Income input will have been taxed at 28% under Biden's proposal vs. the current 21% Federal corporate income tax … Continue reading A Corporate Tax Hike Will Be A Double Whammy On Valuations
On February 18th the House Financial Services Committee will hold a virtual hearing related to the GameStop (GME) fiasco. "Accountability" in a word is how the SEC may act to restore integrity to the capital markets. Jail time for scammers: Should you decide it is a good idea to execute a pump and dump scheme … Continue reading How To Restore Integrity To The Capital Markets
Snowflake and Tesla are the poster children for irrational valuations and outsized CEO compensation packages. Investors - or more accurately "speculators" - value Analytics company Snowflake (tkr: SNOW) at 183x Revenue. That's right, not 183x depressed earnings. 183x revenue. ($110 billion Market Value on approximately $600 million of Revenue). Speculators value Snowflake 9x more than … Continue reading Nosebleed Technology Stock Valuations & CEO Compensation
The ICE BofAML Bond Volatility Index (MOVE) began its march higher on October 1st and has not looked back. There has been an inverse relationship between MOVE and the Russell 2000 Index this year which suggests more equity market volatility is around the corner. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
Robinhood and other Fintech firms are using Social Media-based principles and tools such as "gamification" software to drive customer growth and usage. Legacy Asset Managers are taking the M&A route. Order Flow Revenue or "Pay-to-Play Revenue" is the revenue that Asset Managers generate from directing equity and options order flow to various trade execution firms … Continue reading Two Different Approaches To Growth: Fintech vs. Legacy Asset Managers
Equity funds continue to experience fund outflows as taxable bond funds enjoy fund inflows. (see table & chart below). A modicum of sanity has crept into the equity markets insofar as Technology names are concerned. High multiple growth names that were driven primarily by speculation and momentum have finally started to pull back over the … Continue reading Equities Continue to Experience Fund Outflows as Technology Stocks Slide
Volkswagen AG would provide Tesla with a large scale unit base (approximately 11 million vehicles sold in 2019 compared to 370,000 Tesla vehicles sold) that Tesla could leverage in part to accelerate technology development by 1.) deploying Tesla's technology across VW's much larger fleet and 2.) utilizing VW's cash flow to fund technology development. Tesla … Continue reading Tesla Should Acquire Volkswagen
It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower
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