Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: equity markets
Despite today's uptick in Consumer Confidence, I suspect the measure will turn on a dime (negative sentiment), early next year as job losses mount, as rates remain elevated, as the market rolls over and as the housing market collapses. I expect forced selling in the housing market whether it be of primary homes, secondary homes … Continue reading Consumer Confidence Will Turn On A Dime
There will be more equity market fallout. Historically, equity markets haven't found a bottom while the Fed is in a tightening cycle. I see the NASDAQ index falling to 9,000 during Q1 2023 as: 1.) the Fed tightens further; 2.) weak 2023 earnings guidance is provided on Q4 EPS calls; and 3.) global recession combine … Continue reading Equities Have A Tough 2023 Ahead
Persistently higher interest rates combined with weaker earnings is a recipe for lower equity valuations in 2023. Rates are going higher for longer. It is difficult to imagine the equity markets bottoming before the Fed is done tightening, especially as QT runs in the background shrinking bank reserves and the monetary base. It is not … Continue reading More Pain To Come For Equity Markets
This spring when I said the NASDAQ would bottom around 9,000 my thinking was as follows: 2022 would be a year where higher interest rates reset equity valuations lower, especially as it relates to the NASDAQ Composite. 2023 would be a year where poor company fundamentals reset equity valuations lower. The NASDAQ has experienced some … Continue reading Markets Have Another Leg Down
Once the equity market finds a bottom in the first half of 2023 it is doubtful the market will roar back for a sustained rally. We believe the market will trade sideways for 3-5 years. Our theory is based on three assumptions: First: the Fed maintains its Fed Funds Rate in a range of 3-5%. … Continue reading A Market Bottom Followed By A Sideways Sawtooth Pattern
Our view of the Equity market over the next few years calls for a choppy market that will reward Active Managers and penalize the Buy & Hold crowd. This forthcoming "choppy" market will not be a market where most Technology stocks move up or down, or where certain sectors move in unison. Rather, we are … Continue reading The Return of Active Management
It would have made for great theater if the Fed truly wanted to win the war against inflation. Unfortunately, the Fed already blinked. If the Fed's mission truly was to get CPI back down to 2%, the valuation froth that began to manifest in 2019 peaking with 2021's valuation mania (which made the 1999-2000 dot … Continue reading The Fed Already Blinked
Consider the Fintech and Information Services sector. Depending upon how you define it, the sector trades at approximately 30x Operating Cash Flow ("OCF"). If Company X generates $1 billion in Operating Cash Flow today, the Net Income input will have been taxed at 28% under Biden's proposal vs. the current 21% Federal corporate income tax … Continue reading A Corporate Tax Hike Will Be A Double Whammy On Valuations
On February 18th the House Financial Services Committee will hold a virtual hearing related to the GameStop (GME) fiasco. "Accountability" in a word is how the SEC may act to restore integrity to the capital markets. Jail time for scammers: Should you decide it is a good idea to execute a pump and dump scheme … Continue reading How To Restore Integrity To The Capital Markets
Snowflake and Tesla are the poster children for irrational valuations and outsized CEO compensation packages. Investors - or more accurately "speculators" - value Analytics company Snowflake (tkr: SNOW) at 183x Revenue. That's right, not 183x depressed earnings. 183x revenue. ($110 billion Market Value on approximately $600 million of Revenue). Speculators value Snowflake 9x more than … Continue reading Nosebleed Technology Stock Valuations & CEO Compensation
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