Tag: fed funds rate

Too Little Too Late

Too Little Too Late

Three or four quarter point rate increases in 2022 won't be nearly enough to curb inflation. The Fed does not have the luxury of taking interest rates anywhere near the Volcker-era Fed. Thus, inflation is likley to persist for an extended period of time measured in years not months. Further, we do not believe that … Continue reading Too Little Too Late

The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

A 2004-2006 Fed Funds tightening period could be around the corner should the Fed truly want to curb inflation. The Fed is already late to the inflation game. QE should not exist. The Fed Funds Target Rate range ought to be above 0.00-0.25. Below we have plotted what the next two years could look like … Continue reading The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

The Atlanta Fed updated its model for Real GDP ("GDPNow"). The Atlanta Fed's 3.2% Real GDP estimate as of today is down from 3.7% as of September 21st. We have previously written that real GDP growth may very well be zero percent or even negative as we believe the Federal Reserve underestimates true price inflation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

TEK2day Weekend: Economic Charts<span class="badge-status" style="background:red">Premium</span> 

TEK2day Weekend: Economic ChartsPremium 

We have charted a number of economic data sets. Each chart - some more so than others - speaks to the current weakened economy and/or illustrates the inflated equity valuations we are experiencing. The latter in our view is not related to fundamentals but to the enormous liquidity the Fed has pumped into the economy. … Continue reading TEK2day Weekend: Economic ChartsPremium