Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: Federal Reserve
Powell's Fed will continue to run its ultra-loose monetary policy for as long as possible in an effort to inflate the debt away. On Wednesday Powell will say more time is needed for the economy to recover before the Fed considers tightening interest rates. Powell will talk of transitory inflation. Powell will quote May's poor … Continue reading The Fed Won’t Change Its Position On Wednesday
The punchline is that a significant percentage of new money creation over the past year was allocated to non-productive use cases. "Helicopter" money to individuals and non-performing firms are two examples. When capital is deployed for non-productive use (acquiring cryptocurrencies for example), that capital invariably bids up prices causing asset price inflation. Conversely, recipients that … Continue reading Rewarding Non-Productive Activities with New Money Leads to Price Inflation
Many investors are aware of disruptive FinTech companies such as Apple Pay, Amazon Pay, Betterment, PayPal, Robinhood, Square and Stripe to name a few. These companies are disrupting the legacy FinTech landscape as well as traditional Banks in the pursuit of customers, deposits and payment volume. There is a new disruptive FinTech organization in town … Continue reading Bank & FinTech Consolidation to Continue. Central Banks as Disruptors.
A U.S. CBDC Means Less Privacy for Americans, More Competition for Banks, End of Days for Crypto. (Tickers mentioned: JPM, BAC, WFC) On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a statement about the Fed's progress in exploring a U.S. CBDC ("Central Bank Digital Currency", see the below video). Powell assured viewers that a U.S. … Continue reading A Digital Dollar Is Coming
Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the second Government official in five days to mention that the U.S. economy may require interest rates to move higher so that the economy does not overheat (it overheated months ago in our view when one considers asset prices across most every asset category). Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stated … Continue reading Interest Rates To Inch Higher?
Personal Income is on the rise not because U.S. Productivity is increasing, but because the Federal Government decided it was a good idea to print Dollars and distribute them to Americans. This does not make for a sustainably strong economy. Many of these new pandemic "entitlements" (i.e. welfare) are not going away. Mid-term elections are … Continue reading Federal Transfer Payments To Americans Don’t Equal Economic Strength
Fed Chair Powell does not understand the relationship between Federal welfare ("stimulus") programs and wage inflation. Per Fed Chair Powell's prepared remarks on Wednesday, Mr. Powell seems completely oblivious to the fact that fiscal "stimulus" programs are counterproductive to low-wage services sector employment. For example, Powell commented that he was concerned by the "level of … Continue reading Inflation Is Here To Stay. Powell Likely Has Lost Control.
I can't see a way out of the Fed's inflation problem. The fiscal side of the house needs to inflate its way out of its debt burden. Thus, the Fed will be required to continue to print money both to purchase new Treasury issuances and to control the yield curve. These Fed actions will of … Continue reading The Fed’s Vicious Cycle and Gold
