Tag: Federal Reserve

A Vaccination Passport Is Coming. Digital Currency and A National ID Card Are Next.

A Vaccination Passport Is Coming. Digital Currency and A National ID Card Are Next.

Cerner, Epic, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce and more will spearhead the Vaccination Passport. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, CERN, CHNG/UNH, CRM, FB, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL, RAMP One could argue that we already have National ID cards. Our digital footprint serves as a unique identifier and is easy to aggregate using cross-device tracking technology served up by Google, … Continue reading A Vaccination Passport Is Coming. Digital Currency and A National ID Card Are Next.

2021 Outlook: The Froth Will Continue

2021 Outlook: The Froth Will Continue

From Bubble valuations to zombie companies to Cleantech, 2021 is likely to deliver more of the excesses of 2020. Barring a negative event out of left field, it will take a meaningful interest rate hike and/or corporate tax increase to derail the asset bubble of 2020 that bled into equities, fixed income, home values, lumber, … Continue reading 2021 Outlook: The Froth Will Continue

When You Are Your Biggest Customer

When You Are Your Biggest Customer

The U.S. is similar to a legacy Technology company whose best days are in the rear view mirror. A telltale sign of this reality is that fact that the Federal Reserve is the largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries. There was a time when Japan and China were the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities. Today, … Continue reading When You Are Your Biggest Customer

Will The Federal Reserve Allow Bitcoin to Exist Long-Term?

Will The Federal Reserve Allow Bitcoin to Exist Long-Term?

More precisely - "will central banks allow decentralized digital currencies to exist over the long-term?" The short answer is we do not know for sure, but there certainly is an incentive for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to want to tame any currency that falls outside of central banks' sphere of control. Central … Continue reading Will The Federal Reserve Allow Bitcoin to Exist Long-Term?

We Found The Inflation The Fed Is Looking For

We Found The Inflation The Fed Is Looking For

We found rampant asset inflation around most every corner. Frankly, it was not difficult to find. The Fed either needs to re-tool its definition of inflation or be transparent about the fact that it is working diligently to promote the wealth effect. Here are a few asset bubbles as measured from the market trough in … Continue reading We Found The Inflation The Fed Is Looking For

Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

We believe there will be multiple fiscal stimulus rounds. When one considers the stalled economy, negligible Real GDP growth and high unemployment, it would seem that this $2 Trillion stimulus round under discussion won't be sufficient to satisfy the narrative that Government needs to do more. When one factors in runaway entitlements (table below), it … Continue reading Multiple Fiscal Stimulus Rounds Are Coming. Good News for Equities. Bad News for The Real Economy.

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

"There is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program" - Milton Friedman. First is was the financial crisis of 2008 that "forced" the Fed to perform unnatural acts. It was at this time that the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing ("QE"). QE was to be a "one-and-done" program. That program remains part of the Fed's … Continue reading Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

The airlines knowingly placed themselves between a rock and a hard place when they decided to gorge on cheap debt for the purpose of funding share buyback plans designed to boost executive compensation. The lack of financial wiggle room is of their own doing. It's time for the airlines to restructure, to shrink capacity to … Continue reading Poor Executive Management Must Be Held Accountable

A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP

A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP

U.S. policymakers have increasingly utilized debt to fund various spending initiatives without a thought as to the consequences (reminiscent of the last days of the Roman Empire). U.S. reserve currency status and endless monetary expansion have supported this debt addiction. At this rate U.S. reserve currency status is in jeopardy. The chart below depicts total … Continue reading A Nation in Decline: Total Federal Debt Is 136% of GDP