Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: fiscal debt
Americans fear for their bank deposits. Your deposits are safe. However, you should fear the remedy. The Fed bail out from last Sunday could result in $1-2 trillion of additional public debt assuming that the Fed marks up the assets of and extends loans to all U.S. banks except J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells … Continue reading We’ve Got It All Wrong
Core CPI accelerated month-to-month to 0.5% (from 0.4% in January), as "Shelter" accelerated to 0.8%. Our view is that the Fed will continue to hike rates but may slow the pace of QT, particularly as it relates to Treasuries. The Fed says it will maintain interest rate hikes as the Banking sector stumbles. More importantly, … Continue reading Price Inflation Persists. Now What?
To celebrate Independence Day we give you Milton Friedman's 10-part "Free To Choose" video series. Free To Choose – Vol. 01: “The Power of the Market” https://youtu.be/dngqR9gcDDw Free To Choose – Vol. 02: “The Tyranny of Control” https://youtu.be/CWgNe8v6KFc Free To Choose – Vol. 03: “Anatomy of Crisis” https://youtu.be/fKz6KrMGj3I Free To Choose – Vol. 04: “From Cradle to Grave.” https://youtu.be/ysf-5MdWDt0 … Continue reading Independence Day Edition
We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile
The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation
The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spearheaded the most radical monetary policy in American history. From zero percent interest rates to Quantitative Easing to Corporate Security Asset Purchases to various lending facilities, to subsidizing fiscal spending programs and deficits - The Fed's resume is not one to be proud of. Under Powell the Fed has … Continue reading The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History
Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities
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