Tag: fiscal debt

The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History

The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spearheaded the most radical monetary policy in American history. From zero percent interest rates to Quantitative Easing to Corporate Security Asset Purchases to various lending facilities, to subsidizing fiscal spending programs and deficits - The Fed's resume is not one to be proud of. Under Powell the Fed has … Continue reading The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History

A Tale of Two Cities

A Tale of Two Cities

Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities

More Lines To Come With Price Controls

More Lines To Come With Price Controls

It is starting to feel like the 1970's with out of control fiscal spending, inflation and now gas lines. We only have gas lines in certain parts of the country today as local government officials exercised gas price controls during the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. We could very well see similar price control policies from the … Continue reading More Lines To Come With Price Controls

The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.

The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.

The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.

Inflation Is Here To Stay. Powell Likely Has Lost Control.

Inflation Is Here To Stay. Powell Likely Has Lost Control.

Fed Chair Powell does not understand the relationship between Federal welfare ("stimulus") programs and wage inflation. Per Fed Chair Powell's prepared remarks on Wednesday, Mr. Powell seems completely oblivious to the fact that fiscal "stimulus" programs are counterproductive to low-wage services sector employment. For example, Powell commented that he was concerned by the "level of … Continue reading Inflation Is Here To Stay. Powell Likely Has Lost Control.