Last week we wrote about upcoming Treasury auctions. You may ask "What does Treasury estimate as its borrowing requirements for the balance of the year?" After all, more borrowing equals more Treasury debt. Higher interest rates mean Treasury interest expense is growing as a percentage of Federal tax revenue, which will crowd out fiscal spending … Continue reading Treasury Debt Going Higher As Treasury Borrows
Tag: fiscal deficits
What's next is that this economic slowdown will become noticeably slower effective immediately. The catalyst is that Americans are responsible for paying down their student loans again beginning in October. Q3 consumer consumption will slow a bit as a result followed by a more pronounced slowdown in Q4. Consumer-facing Technology companies will feel a hit … Continue reading What’s Next and What’s Coming
Investors have historically moved to Gold in times of uncertainty. Gold has moved substantially higher since the market turmoil in the banking sector kicked off last week. Here's why investors should be interested in Gold: perpetual money printing by the Fed, ever larger fiscal deficits and a mounting debt load - the combination of which … Continue reading Gold Safer Than Software
Core CPI accelerated month-to-month to 0.5% (from 0.4% in January), as "Shelter" accelerated to 0.8%. Our view is that the Fed will continue to hike rates but may slow the pace of QT, particularly as it relates to Treasuries. The Fed says it will maintain interest rate hikes as the Banking sector stumbles. More importantly, … Continue reading Price Inflation Persists. Now What?
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is campaigning for the U.S. to raise its debt ceiling. This is code for Treasury can't afford to pay down its debt and wants to issue new debt to pay down the old debt. Reducing fiscal spending is the answer, but Washington is used to having its cake and eating it … Continue reading Treasury’s Vicious Debt Cycle
The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated