Tag: fiscal policy

Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Hate to say we told you so, but this inflation train is moving into high gear and will remain strong throughout 2022, particularly as higher home rental prices start to flow through the Fed's home rental price surveys. Our view is that the Fed will be forced to accelerate its tapering effort to perhaps conclude … Continue reading Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

Whether it is the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or CNBC, the business press fails to mention price inflation as a primary factor behind the economic slowdown as measured by Real GDP of 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the Delta variant are not exclusively responsible for the stagflationary period we are about to embark on where … Continue reading Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

The word "stagflation" is at peak interest at the moment as measured over the most recent 12-month period using Google Trends to calculate search interest. We have beat the drum on stagflation for the past year and some on Wall Street have picked up the baton in recent days. Below we have created a chart … Continue reading Google Search Trends: Stagflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

We critique Fed Chairman Powell's recent FOMC YouTube clip comments (video below) by time stamp. 0:07 - The Fed continues to purchase Treasuries ($80 billion per month) and MBS ($40 billion per month), thereby artificially suppressing interest rates while inflating the money supply. The Fed's actions - increasing the money supply - are solely responsible … Continue reading A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History

The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spearheaded the most radical monetary policy in American history. From zero percent interest rates to Quantitative Easing to Corporate Security Asset Purchases to various lending facilities, to subsidizing fiscal spending programs and deficits - The Fed's resume is not one to be proud of. Under Powell the Fed has … Continue reading The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History