The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
Tag: fiscal policy
Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spearheaded the most radical monetary policy in American history. From zero percent interest rates to Quantitative Easing to Corporate Security Asset Purchases to various lending facilities, to subsidizing fiscal spending programs and deficits - The Fed's resume is not one to be proud of. Under Powell the Fed has … Continue reading The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History
Amidst the talk of the Fed potentially tightening monetary policy in 2023 or even next year, the Fed expanded its Balance Sheet at its fastest pace since March 17th of this year, growing assets 1.4% from the week prior. This narrative of the Fed potentially becoming more hawkish needs to be put into perspective. With … Continue reading The Fed Expanded Its Balance Sheet Amidst Tightening Chatter
A byproduct of the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (“PEUC”) program is the job interview "no show", which has become all too common across the Retail sector. The "no show" is where a job candidate skips the job interview because the candidate never intended to obtain a job. Rather, the candidate simply needed to show proof … Continue reading The Job Interview “No Show”
One of the great distortions caused by the joint fiscal and monetary policy of 2020 and 2021 is that equities and the lowest-rated non-investment grade credits are two of the all too rare places where investors may earn a return. Savers and Fixed Income investors be damned. Many companies are enjoying their stocks trading at … Continue reading Investors Should Ask More of Their Management Teams
More bogus CPI numbers reported yesterday (HERE). The CPI itself is a poor price inflation measure given it excludes so many asset classes such as equities, art and crypto. Let's focus on one CPI line item - "food at home" which was up 0.7% over the past 12 months ended May. Sorry, that's a bogus … Continue reading Inflating The Debt Away. Higher Prices Are Here To Stay.
The best management teams know to plan for the worst and hope for the best. COVID was a reminder to many business leaders that anything can come out of left field and blind side a business. Despite the COVID lesson we believe that many CEOs and CFOs take certain financial conditions for granted as if … Continue reading Plan for the Worst. Hope for the Best.
We've written on several occasions about how the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program was making it difficult for businesses to fill jobs and how this was contributing to wage and price inflation. To date, 22 states have opted-out of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program established via the CARES Act. Access the interactive PDF below … Continue reading 22 States Have Opted-Out of Federal Pandemic Unemployment Aid
Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities