Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: government stimulus
There are all sorts of fiscal stimulus programs associated with the CARES Act (a COVID relic), that are still in effect. The New York Times recently wrote about the Employee Retention Credit which has provided approximately $150 billion in refunds to date. While Total Tax Refunds as a Percentage of Gross Tax Collections normalized in … Continue reading Tax Refunds as Fiscal Stimulus & Inflation Catalyst
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q2 Real GDP estimate was -2.1% as of July 1st. This marks the second consecutive negative Real GDP quarter which means we are officially in a recession. A recession in 2022 was an easy call for us to make as there was essentially zero probability of the U.S. economy growing in … Continue reading It Is Official. We Are In A Recession.
Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022
The fiscal deficit will be stimulated to new heights once the $1.9 trillion debt package is passed by Congress. Speculative securities, SPAC deal flow, general fraud and moral hazard will also be stimulated along with housing and automobile prices. This debt package will do nothing to create sustainable employment nor sustainable GDP growth. Rather, the … Continue reading List of 160+ CEOs Who Favor Additional Debt-Funded Transfer Payments To “Stimulate” The U.S. Economy
FOMO is stronger than ever given social media, the 24-hour news cycle and various fintech apps that facilitate equity trading. FOMO ("Fear Of Missing Out"), is stronger than ever, especially among the retail trading community. Retail traders are flush with cash coming off of 2020's Federal Government issued checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. Technology has … Continue reading FOMO Is Stronger Than Ever
This next round of debt-funded stimulus will ensure that the U.S. economy look much like Japan's at least for the next decade if not the next 20-30 years. The fiscal side of the ledger is a deficit-promoting mess and the monetary side is complicit by way of subsidizing the debt. Fed official Neel Kashkari believes … Continue reading More Debt-Funded “Stimulus” Ensures Near Zero Real GDP Growth
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