Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: Great Recession
We have written on a number of occasions over the past few months that we believe the NASDAQ Composite will bottom at 9,000. By when? By March 2023. That's 7 months from now if you include March 2023. We need two things to happen in order for investors to capitulate: First, we needed the Fed … Continue reading How Quick To NASDAQ 9,000?
Despite what the Biden Administration and Federal Reserve would have us believe the U.S. is in a recession. The Atlanta Fed estimates Q2 Real GDP at -1.2% and we will get the official Real GDP figure Thursday July 28th at 8:30am ET. The official figure will be revised in the weeks to come (probably downward). … Continue reading House of Cards
As growth slows and interest rates climb, management teams will command a greater weighting in investors' due diligence processes as compared to the 2009-2022 period of ultra-low interest rates and Quantitative Easing ("QE"). While it is too early to call peak inflation and far too early to talk about a Fed pivot, it is never … Continue reading Management Teams Will Matter More To Investors
The pundits chat up gold and silver in the midst of economic uncertainty and trade tensions with China. They are forgetting the Fed's record money printing party. Investors who were concerned about the recent rapid, large scale expansion of the money supply (particularly M1) have had positions in gold and/or silver since early April of … Continue reading Worth Its Weight In Gold?
More Market Uncertainty Is Coming. However, Don't Paint with A Broad Brush. Align Yourself with Market Leaders. We expect Enterprise Software companies to provide conservative outlooks for the 2020 calendar year. We do not expect Enterprise Software companies to completely yank their respective 2020 outlooks as have other Technology companies. We anticipate negative investor sentiment … Continue reading Enterprise Software 2020 Outlook
We are doing a bit of work around derivatives exposure. Overnight we reviewed U.S. personal savings rates as a percentage of personal disposable income for the January 1959 - May 2019 period on a monthly basis. The personal savings rate has bounced between 6-8% since January 2013. This is in-line with the mid-to-late 1990's period. … Continue reading U.S. Personal Savings Rates 1959-2019
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