Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: inflation
A 2004-2006 Fed Funds tightening period could be around the corner should the Fed truly want to curb inflation. The Fed is already late to the inflation game. QE should not exist. The Fed Funds Target Rate range ought to be above 0.00-0.25. Below we have plotted what the next two years could look like … Continue reading The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates
Inflation is the result when money supply growth outpaces an economy's ability to produce goods and services. We use M2 in the below chart to represent the money supply (the thin blue line). We use the The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Real GDP as productivity proxies. The PPI is measured by the thin red … Continue reading Inflation: A Visual Representation
Hate to say we told you so, but this inflation train is moving into high gear and will remain strong throughout 2022, particularly as higher home rental prices start to flow through the Fed's home rental price surveys. Our view is that the Fed will be forced to accelerate its tapering effort to perhaps conclude … Continue reading Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation
Whether it is the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or CNBC, the business press fails to mention price inflation as a primary factor behind the economic slowdown as measured by Real GDP of 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the Delta variant are not exclusively responsible for the stagflationary period we are about to embark on where … Continue reading Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown
The word "stagflation" is at peak interest at the moment as measured over the most recent 12-month period using Google Trends to calculate search interest. We have beat the drum on stagflation for the past year and some on Wall Street have picked up the baton in recent days. Below we have created a chart … Continue reading Google Search Trends: Stagflation
The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation
Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022
Insurance company CIOs continue to use Alternative Assets to increase yield in this ultra-low interest rate environment. KKR Asset Management's Insurance CIO survey found similar results (chart below) to our recent TEK2day Spotlight report on the insurance industry which may be accessed HERE. We expect that the heavy use of Alternative Assets in the pursuit … Continue reading Leveraging Alternative Assets To Increase Yield
The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated
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