If you believe that the Federal Government is an efficient capital allocator you will love Biden's "infrastructure" spending program. Similarly, if you are a "GreenTech" executive or entrepreneur, this massive spending program is shaping up to provide a long-term tail wind. Government officials will have trillions of newly printed capital to play with. Slim chance … Continue reading A Breakdown of Biden’s $2.3 Trillion Green New Deal
With the Money Supply (M1) up 358% since January 2020 (as of February 2021), there is simply zero percent probability that prices are not going higher. A 3-4x increase in M1 ought to inflate prices by a similar multiple. Most of the recent $1.9 Trillion (the actual cost will be higher), COVID spending program was … Continue reading The Ugliest Chart I Have Ever Seen
It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. economy does not experience stagflation. Record debt levels, low labor participation, muted long-term Real GDP growth, persistent inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is limited in its options to fight inflation leads us to believe that stagflation is imminent. Our premium TEK2day … Continue reading Stagflation Is ImminentPremium
The Federal Reserve has two primary tools that it may use to fight inflation: halting the printing press and raising interest rates. The first option is unlikely given Treasury Chief Yellen and Fed Chief Powell are operating in lock step. The Fed is limited in its use of the second option. If the Fed were … Continue reading The Fed’s Options To Fight Inflation Are Limited
The simple math is that the Federal Government is pumping $1.9 Trillion into the U.S. Economy. Treasury has issued 90 million stimulus payments worth $242 billion. More money in consumers' pockets plus new Treasury bond supply plus relaxing of COVID restrictions translates to higher Treasury bond yields. The higher yields will result in less Technology … Continue reading More Inflation Is Coming
Rising yields will slow debt-funded M&A activity. We expect the pace of Technology M&A to slow as companies review M&A pipelines and landscapes, alternative M&A deal structures and alternative capital allocation choices in the face of rising Treasury yields. Technology valuations are near an all-time high. A fresh $1.9 Trillion print could send equity valuations … Continue reading Rising Yields Will Slow M&A Activity
The three-headed Hydra of low labor participation, increased debt levels and higher taxes will cripple U.S. long-term Real GDP growth for decades. Labor participation is not going back to December 2019 levels. To believe that scenario is wishful thinking. For starters, 25% of restaurants and bars are permanently closed. Those jobs are not returning. Second, … Continue reading Brace for Anemic Long-Term Real GDP Growth
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The Fed would have us believe "There's nothing to see here," (to quote Frank Drebin), as it relates to inflation. Consumer spending funded by government debt is of inferior quality as compared to spending funded by increased production. In January Americans spent their debt-funded government checks that were mailed out at the end of December. … Continue reading Long Rates Continue To Climb As Inflation Persists. Nothing To See Here.
Gold prices ought to have climbed higher given the amount of money printing that took place in 2020 and that is likely to continue. What happened? Additional debt-funded "stimulus", QE and accompanying asset inflation should have pushed gold prices higher. After all, gold is a safe haven. What gives? (view a chart of the spot … Continue reading Where Is The Gold Rally?