Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: inflation
Perhaps now the equity market understands that it would be impossible for the Fed to normalize rates if the central bank was to take rates back down to zero in short order due to the Banking crisis or for any other reason. Wednesday's FOMC projections show that the Fed plans to keep rates elevated and … Continue reading Now Maybe The Market Gets It?
Americans fear for their bank deposits. Your deposits are safe. However, you should fear the remedy. The Fed bail out from last Sunday could result in $1-2 trillion of additional public debt assuming that the Fed marks up the assets of and extends loans to all U.S. banks except J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells … Continue reading We’ve Got It All Wrong
Investors have historically moved to Gold in times of uncertainty. Gold has moved substantially higher since the market turmoil in the banking sector kicked off last week. Here's why investors should be interested in Gold: perpetual money printing by the Fed, ever larger fiscal deficits and a mounting debt load - the combination of which … Continue reading Gold Safer Than Software
The Fed modestly decreased its Treasury and mortgage-backed holdings during the week-ended Wednesday March 15th. Thus, the Fed simultaneously ran QT with QE running in the background in the form of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). You may read about the BTFP's first week in operation by clicking HERE. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update Premium
It would be a mistake to believe that the prices of goods and services can't accelerate from here. Look at the trend (chart below) in Core CPI - it has headed in precisely the wrong direction since November 2022. Some of the Core CPI momentum is due to the Shelter category which carries a heavy … Continue reading The Fed Must Fight Inflation
If it was not clear in our recent piece Bail Out, I am not a fan of bail outs. Sunday's Fed action was a bail out, plain and simple. So much for Capitalism. Since 2009 the Fed has done as much to damage Capitalism as FDR's New Deal, Nixon's taking the U.S. off of the … Continue reading Fed Bail Out Creates Enormous Moral Hazard
Core CPI accelerated month-to-month to 0.5% (from 0.4% in January), as "Shelter" accelerated to 0.8%. Our view is that the Fed will continue to hike rates but may slow the pace of QT, particularly as it relates to Treasuries. The Fed says it will maintain interest rate hikes as the Banking sector stumbles. More importantly, … Continue reading Price Inflation Persists. Now What?
Fed Chair Powell has the backbone of a jellyfish. Therefore it will be interesting to see what he and his band of banking flunkies do at their FOMC meeting later this month - especially if Financials continue to trade down and should consumer prices remain elevated as we expect (CPI release is Tuesday at 8:30am … Continue reading Powell’s Puzzle. Dimon A Winner.
If the U.S. was to experience a widespread bank run, that would be the time for the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply, thereby providing liquidity to commercial banks such that they may meet depositor withdrawals. Thus far SVIB and SBNY have been closed by the FDIC. Apparently that was too much for Fed … Continue reading Bail Out
Blame the various COVID relief packages for the weak labor force participation rate - 62.5% in February, up from 62.4% in January but down from 63.3% in February 2020 pre-pandemic. This at a time when the Biden Administration is proposing a $7 trillion budget. I'm not sure where demand for U.S. Treasuries to fund this … Continue reading Labor Force Participation – Weak
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