Tag: interest rates

Too Little Too Late

Too Little Too Late

Three or four quarter point rate increases in 2022 won't be nearly enough to curb inflation. The Fed does not have the luxury of taking interest rates anywhere near the Volcker-era Fed. Thus, inflation is likley to persist for an extended period of time measured in years not months. Further, we do not believe that … Continue reading Too Little Too Late

The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

A 2004-2006 Fed Funds tightening period could be around the corner should the Fed truly want to curb inflation. The Fed is already late to the inflation game. QE should not exist. The Fed Funds Target Rate range ought to be above 0.00-0.25. Below we have plotted what the next two years could look like … Continue reading The Fed Will Likely Tighten Faster Than The Market Anticipates

Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Hate to say we told you so, but this inflation train is moving into high gear and will remain strong throughout 2022, particularly as higher home rental prices start to flow through the Fed's home rental price surveys. Our view is that the Fed will be forced to accelerate its tapering effort to perhaps conclude … Continue reading Cash Rich Stocks & Other Ideas To Hedge Inflation

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

The word "stagflation" is at peak interest at the moment as measured over the most recent 12-month period using Google Trends to calculate search interest. We have beat the drum on stagflation for the past year and some on Wall Street have picked up the baton in recent days. Below we have created a chart … Continue reading Google Search Trends: Stagflation

Leveraging Alternative Assets To Increase Yield

Leveraging Alternative Assets To Increase Yield

Insurance company CIOs continue to use Alternative Assets to increase yield in this ultra-low interest rate environment. KKR Asset Management's Insurance CIO survey found similar results (chart below) to our recent TEK2day Spotlight report on the insurance industry which may be accessed HERE. We expect that the heavy use of Alternative Assets in the pursuit … Continue reading Leveraging Alternative Assets To Increase Yield

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

The Atlanta Fed updated its model for Real GDP ("GDPNow"). The Atlanta Fed's 3.2% Real GDP estimate as of today is down from 3.7% as of September 21st. We have previously written that real GDP growth may very well be zero percent or even negative as we believe the Federal Reserve underestimates true price inflation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

We critique Fed Chairman Powell's recent FOMC YouTube clip comments (video below) by time stamp. 0:07 - The Fed continues to purchase Treasuries ($80 billion per month) and MBS ($40 billion per month), thereby artificially suppressing interest rates while inflating the money supply. The Fed's actions - increasing the money supply - are solely responsible … Continue reading A Fed Critique By Time Stamp

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 3.6% real GDP for Q3, down from 3.7% a week earlier provides the Fed with the narrative necessary to not taper MBS asset purchases (currently approximately $40 billion per month), nor Treasury purchases (approximately $80 billion per month). Investors ought to stick to quality names. In the face of … Continue reading Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

We published our TEK2day Spotlight report - The Evolving Insurance Industry - a few weeks ago. We hosted a follow-up podcast episode with two of the SS&C Technologies (ticker: SSNC), executives that were involved with that effort. You may view the video podcast at the YouTube link below. If any difficulties, simply visit CEORater's YouTube … Continue reading TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest Rates Follow Real GDP

Interest rates have historically followed Real GDP. The below graph plots the 10-year Treasury at constant maturity vs. the year-over-year change in Real GDP as measured each quarter. It will be interesting for markets ("interesting" meaning "disruptive"), should the Fed tighten in what is now a slowing economy in Real GDP terms. Reach us at … Continue reading Interest Rates Follow Real GDP