The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 3.6% real GDP for Q3, down from 3.7% a week earlier provides the Fed with the narrative necessary to not taper MBS asset purchases (currently approximately $40 billion per month), nor Treasury purchases (approximately $80 billion per month). Investors ought to stick to quality names. In the face of … Continue reading Muted Real GDP Provides The Fed With Excuse Not To Taper. Stick To Quality.
Tag: interest rates
We published our TEK2day Spotlight report - The Evolving Insurance Industry - a few weeks ago. We hosted a follow-up podcast episode with two of the SS&C Technologies (ticker: SSNC), executives that were involved with that effort. You may view the video podcast at the YouTube link below. If any difficulties, simply visit CEORater's YouTube … Continue reading TEK2day Podcast Ep. 441: Insurers & Alternative Asset Investing with SS&C Technologies
Interest rates have historically followed Real GDP. The below graph plots the 10-year Treasury at constant maturity vs. the year-over-year change in Real GDP as measured each quarter. It will be interesting for markets ("interesting" meaning "disruptive"), should the Fed tighten in what is now a slowing economy in Real GDP terms. Reach us at … Continue reading Interest Rates Follow Real GDP
The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A
TEK2day Spotlights are sponsored reports that focus on a particular industry and/or technologies. M&A Activity & Low Interest Rates, Product & Process Innovation and Digital Transformation & Advanced Automation are some of the catalysts driving change within the global insurance industry. Click HERE to access the full report. Reach us at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has spearheaded the most radical monetary policy in American history. From zero percent interest rates to Quantitative Easing to Corporate Security Asset Purchases to various lending facilities, to subsidizing fiscal spending programs and deficits - The Fed's resume is not one to be proud of. Under Powell the Fed has … Continue reading The Most Radical, Irresponsible Monetary Policy In U.S. History
Amidst the talk of the Fed potentially tightening monetary policy in 2023 or even next year, the Fed expanded its Balance Sheet at its fastest pace since March 17th of this year, growing assets 1.4% from the week prior. This narrative of the Fed potentially becoming more hawkish needs to be put into perspective. With … Continue reading The Fed Expanded Its Balance Sheet Amidst Tightening Chatter
Powell's Fed will continue to run its ultra-loose monetary policy for as long as possible in an effort to inflate the debt away. On Wednesday Powell will say more time is needed for the economy to recover before the Fed considers tightening interest rates. Powell will talk of transitory inflation. Powell will quote May's poor … Continue reading The Fed Won’t Change Its Position On Wednesday
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"), publishes the Labor Participation Rate each month. The Labor Participation Rate accurately reflects the state of labor in the United States. The same government agency also publishes the Unemployment Rate each month (due Friday June 4th). We view the latter as a Government marketing metric as it significantly … Continue reading Labor Participation Outlook: June 2021Premium