META's value proposition to Ad Buyers was permanently impaired by Apple’s implementation of permission-based Ad tracking which has negatively impacted META's price per ad metric for almost two years (see chart and table below). Further adding to META's Ad woes, Google will phase out third-party cookies next year and replace them with its Privacy Sandbox. … Continue reading META’s Ad Problem
Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?
Past recessions have taught us that leading Technology companies typically gain marketshare during down economies. I would expect this economic down period to be no different. Good news for Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT): Amazon's AWS unit and Microsoft's Azure unit will be mixed bags: Usage: Usage - and … Continue reading Technology Leaders Will Gain Share
Below are two paragraphs from META's earnings release. The language is from the "CFO Commentary" section and is symptomatic of a company that is operationally lax. It may be too late for META to find religion around operational excellence. Operational efficiency is a skill set that is developed over years, it is not a cost-cutting … Continue reading Meta Is Operationally Reactive
I love Google's Pixel phones. When Android founder Andy Rubin shut down his mobile phone startup - Essential - I migrated from Essential's beautiful phones to the equally beautiful Google Pixel 3 in October 2018. Last year I upgraded to the Pixel 5 and will likely purchase the Pixel 7 within 24 months. I'm not … Continue reading I Love Google’s Pixel Phones
Whether of not META shares are inexpensive depends upon what you believe 2023 and 2024 estimates will look like. We believe the global macro environment will soften for the remainder of this year and next and that META's numbers over the next few quarters will reflect this difficult macro demand environment. META is in the … Continue reading Is META Cheap?
It is only logical that the leading smartphone company (Apple) and the leading AI company (Google) are increasingly designing more of their own silicon which is optimized for each company's respective products and services. Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, GOOG, INTC, QCOM, SWKS Think of the iPhone and Google's Pixel phone. Every feature, every application, … Continue reading Platform Companies Will Increasingly Design Proprietary Silicon
Facebook needs to build a bridge between its present product portfolio and a Metaverse-centric future. iOS users began to opt out of iOS app tracking when iOS 14.5 was released in April 2021 as part of Apple's App Tracking Transparency policy. iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV apps are required to request users' permission to track … Continue reading Between Here and The Metaverse
A Big Tech vs. Big Government showdown is far less likely than a marriage of the titans. Whether it be Google's search monopoly, the Facebook/ Twitter/ TikTok social media oligopoly, the AWS/ Azure/ GCP oligopoly, the App Store/ Google Play duopoly, or the iOS/Android duopoly, the amount of power and influence concentrated among the world's … Continue reading The Marriage of Big Tech and Big Government
The iPhone Is A High-Priced Commodity The iPhone is little more than a high-priced commodity at this juncture. There is little differentiation between it and lower cost alternatives (OnePlus for example) both from a design and feature functionality standpoint. However, with 2 billion-plus devices in circulation, Apple's future does not rest exclusively with new device … Continue reading Apple Should Double Down on Apple Health NowPremium