10-year Treasury yields dropped last week from 4.93% on Halloween to 4.58% today as Treasury slowed its pace of new issues and as jobs data was revised downward. However, at some point Treasury is going to rollover a bunch of short-term debt to finance Government operations (as well as longer maturity issues that are due … Continue reading Don’t Get Too Comfortable With The Pullback In the 10-Year Treasury Yield. It Is Going Higher.
Tag: Janet Yellen
The 10-year Treasury yield will break 5% next week and will likely sit above 5% at week's end. Fed Funds rate: The Fed will be forced to lower its Fed Funds rate next year so that the interest expense on the $33.6 Trillion National debt does not get completely out of control. My sense is … Continue reading The Treasury Yield Curve Will Right Size in 2024
Fed Chair Powell began his Quantitative Tightening (QT) campaign in May 2022. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ran her own campaign - a counter campaign that offset the Fed's monetary tightening. Yellen stimulated the economy by pumping money from the Treasury's General Account (TGA) into the economy - more than offsetting the Fed's tightening efforts … Continue reading While Powell Tightened, Yellen Opened Her Purse
Currency in Circulation has increased by approximately $96 billion (4%), from October 2021 through February 2023. That's largely due to Janet Yellen drawing down the Treasury's TGA - its own form of fiscal stimulus. This effort has essentially offset the Fed's QT efforts. Bank Reserves have decreased by approximately $1.10 trillion (-27%) over the same … Continue reading Shrink The Monetary Base To Curb Inflation
Why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued short and intermediate-term Treasury securities (Bills and Notes) rather than Bonds when the Fed Funds Rate was at zero percent we will never know. We are now paying the price as the Public Debt rolls over at higher rates. See table below. Treasury Bills: T-Bills can have a maturity … Continue reading The Looming Treasury Debt Bomb
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the second Government official in five days to mention that the U.S. economy may require interest rates to move higher so that the economy does not overheat (it overheated months ago in our view when one considers asset prices across most every asset category). Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stated … Continue reading Interest Rates To Inch Higher?
Treasury Secretary Yellen's minimum global corporate tax is not yet global law but soon will be. The U.S. and Western European Governments and Central Banks have marched in lock step since 2008's Financial Crisis. A decade-plus of record fiscal spending, accommodative monetary policy (a Keynesian's dream) has led to record, expanding fiscal deficits that will … Continue reading Yellen’s Minimum Global Corporate Tax Is A Big Deal
A digital currency world is coming. The 2022 Beijing Olympics will operate via a digital RMB for local attendees and may include digital cross-border payments as well. Our Federal Reserve is experimenting with digital currency. Both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen have talked down Bitcoin and said the U.S. will move slowly with … Continue reading Square, PayPal, and Apple Will Dominate A Digital Currency World
The SPACs just keep coming. EV manufacturer Lucid Motors plans to IPO via Michael Klein's Churchill Capital. Zero revenue and a $24 billion proforma valuation. I find it fascinating that "sober" investors such as Fidelity and BlackRock participate in these bubble deals. Link HERE. Another SPAC listing will take place when Apex Clearing completes its … Continue reading SPAC-Mania, Bitcoin and The Fed