Credit spreads will widen in our view primarily driven by job losses and increases in the cost of goods and services. There is downward pressure on jobs as we usher in the fall season. Seasonal summer jobs essentially work their way to zero from Labor Day to Columbus Day. Government jobs around the U.S. Census … Continue reading Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase
Fed Chair Powell's comments on Thursday were in-line with our perspective published on Wednesday. The Fed will continue to work to "stimulate" the economy (it can't of course, it can only inflate asset prices). However, every time Chairman Powell mentioned "full employment" in his speech I couldn't help but think of the job dislocation that's … Continue reading Dovish Fed Policy Speaks to A Weak Economy and Permanent Job Dislocation. We Propose A Solution.
Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor
Dovish Fed Chair Jerome Powell held day 2 of his semi-annual monetary report to Congress today. To summarize, the Fed's got your back if you are a company of most any size, if you participate in the capital markets, if you are a politician looking for a free lunch, if you desire low interest rates … Continue reading This Dove’s Not Crying
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by +2.5 million in May led by a recovery in Leisure and Hospitality. The biggest driver was bars and restaurants ("Food Services and Drinking Establishments"), which added +1.4 million jobs and accounted for 56% of total non-farm payroll additions. Non-farm employment in May improved sequentially and was 13% below February … Continue reading U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants
We have a growing demand problem as a result of millions of jobs lost to the COVID pandemic (Personal Consumption -13.6% March to April 2020). Many of these jobs are not coming back as companies close permanently, realize they can do more with less and lose market share to competitors. Charts, video and podcasts at … Continue reading Houston, We Have A Demand ProblemPremium
19 states began to reopen for business in a limited capacity. States adhered to the Phase I protocol recently outlined by the Trump Administration (we covered here), a key component of which includes social distancing/ limiting occupancy. 20-50% business occupancy limits are common with most states closer to 20%. These limitations will certainly hinder an … Continue reading Reopening America: The Numbers
Layoffs are not only taking place across the retail, restaurant, travel and hospitality industries. A number of other industries including the Technology industry have absorbed their fair share of layoffs as well. Some early-stage Technology companies are conserving cash by replacing cash compensation with equity. The list below includes approximately 60 companies (primarily Tech companies) … Continue reading Layoffs Have Extended Beyond Hotels and Restaurants
Total non-farm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"). Access our Excel breakdown HERE. Access the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" HERE. Reach us at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com with any questions. click table to expand or download https://open.spotify.com/episode/7jfJcHHQGgV7ODBnX1p0pZ https://youtu.be/ARMMrPigbuQ
Human Capital is Key “It’s people! Soylent Green is people!” shouted Charlton Heston’s Robert Thorn in 1973’s Soylent Green. Fast forward 45 years and people remain central to the process. Although the process we refer to isn’t recycled human foodstuff but rather the global economy where Intellectual Capital provides economic sustenance and Human Capital is … Continue reading It’s People! It’s People!