Tag: jobs

Consumer Confidence Will Turn On A Dime

Consumer Confidence Will Turn On A Dime

Despite today's uptick in Consumer Confidence, I suspect the measure will turn on a dime (negative sentiment), early next year as job losses mount, as rates remain elevated, as the market rolls over and as the housing market collapses. I expect forced selling in the housing market whether it be of primary homes, secondary homes … Continue reading Consumer Confidence Will Turn On A Dime

Technology Layoffs Continue To Climb

Technology Layoffs Continue To Climb

More Technology-related layoffs have occured in Q4 2022 than at the COVID economic trough in Q2 2020 (51,048 employees in the month of November 2022). Technology layoffs continue to mount as: interest rates climb; inflation remains elevated; global demand sputters and; as macro-economic uncertainty remains high. Check out Layoffs.fyi (created by Roger Lee), to track … Continue reading Technology Layoffs Continue To Climb

ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

Approximately 1.2 million residential mortgages in Great Britain are adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). As the Bank of England (BOE), continues to move interest rates higher (3% rate today and likely moving to 3.5% on December 15th), the average ARM holder will have to absorb significantly higher monthly payments which translates to commensurately less disposable income. … Continue reading ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.

Tech Layoffs Are Spiking

Tech Layoffs Are Spiking

More than 24,000 Technology sector employees have been laid off month-to-date making November the worst month of the year for layoffs as Technology companies prepare 2023 budgets. Q4 2022 could rival Q2 2020 when more than 60,000 Technology sector employees were laid off. Q4 2022 is tracking at approximately 37,000 Technology sector employee layoffs. Our … Continue reading Tech Layoffs Are Spiking

Sell This Rally

Sell This Rally

Equity indices have rallied today as reported Headline and Core CPI increased by "only" 7.7% and 6.3% Y-O-Y respectively. Many Technology names are up double-digit percentages today on this macro news despite the fact that many companies are cutting heads (it's not just CRM, LYFT, META, MSFT, NFLX, RDFN and SHOP), given the weak economic … Continue reading Sell This Rally

This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

This bear market rally feels more driven by FOMO than the fundamentals. What is there to get so excited about as to justify this rally off of the June lows? Inflation: Is the fact that headline CPI slowed to 8.5% from 9.1% really anything to write home about? Core CPI plus Food was up 1.4% … Continue reading This Bear Market Rally Is Overdone

More Layoffs Are Coming

More Layoffs Are Coming

Inflation, interest rates and OpEx are climbing while demand softens for many companies. One glance at the table below shows that layoffs over the past two months are fairly widespread across industries. We believe that more layoffs are coming as inflation and interest rates rise. Rates will accelerate higher in June should the Fed make … Continue reading More Layoffs Are Coming

Fed Spin and U.S. Jobs

Fed Spin and U.S. Jobs

Federal Reserve officials tout the U.S. economy's strength as the reason why Fed tightening will not tip the economy into recession. The unemployment rate is the preferred metric of Fed officials who are spinning the tale of a strong economy. We provide an alternative. The Fed is expert at one thing - pulling the wool … Continue reading Fed Spin and U.S. Jobs

Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work

Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work

Low wage services jobs are difficult to fill as we recently wrote (we continue to collect anecdotal data that supports our prior writing). Workers are choosing to stay home and collect Federal unemployment benefits rather than be productive. The moral hazard we warned of months ago is here. Should Biden and The Fed choose to … Continue reading Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work