Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: jobs
I'll put a negative spin on the Labor Force Participation Rate inching up by one-tenth of one percent: it did so as many who were collecting now expired COVID benefits can no longer afford to sit on the couch. This also explains why personal credit card debt has moved markedly higher over the past year … Continue reading Labor Force Participation Inches Up
Given that Tech layoffs have ramped higher each quarter since Q3 2021, I don't see how Tech is an investor safe haven. Q1 2023 is the worst quarter yet in terms of the number of employees laid off and it could get far worse from here as this credit crisis will be more severe than … Continue reading Tech Is No Safe Haven
The labor force participation rate has declined steadily for 20-plus years. There is no great mystery as to why. Government social benefits (i.e. welfare payments), to Americans have grown dramatically. The green line in the chart below is the Labor Force Participation Rate. The red line plots Government social benefits. The two big red spikes … Continue reading The Labor Problem
Approximately 102 thousand employees have been laid off across the Technology industry in 2023. That figure is 64% of 2022's 160 thousand Tech sector layoff total. If you thought June 2022 was bad from a layoff perspective, November 2022 was worse. If you thought November was bad, January 2023 was worse. My guess is that … Continue reading Layoffs Continue To Ramp
We recently wrote that there were more Tech-related layoffs in Q4 2022 than during the COVID trough in Q2 2020. Approximately 23% more Tech-related layoffs (73,899) occurred during Q4 2022 versus the COVID trough (60,141), in Q2 2020. There is plenty more room to cut. One thing is for sure - there is more room … Continue reading Was Q4 The Bottom For Tech Layoffs?
Despite today's uptick in Consumer Confidence, I suspect the measure will turn on a dime (negative sentiment), early next year as job losses mount, as rates remain elevated, as the market rolls over and as the housing market collapses. I expect forced selling in the housing market whether it be of primary homes, secondary homes … Continue reading Consumer Confidence Will Turn On A Dime
More Technology-related layoffs have occured in Q4 2022 than at the COVID economic trough in Q2 2020 (51,048 employees in the month of November 2022). Technology layoffs continue to mount as: interest rates climb; inflation remains elevated; global demand sputters and; as macro-economic uncertainty remains high. Check out Layoffs.fyi (created by Roger Lee), to track … Continue reading Technology Layoffs Continue To Climb
Approximately 1.2 million residential mortgages in Great Britain are adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). As the Bank of England (BOE), continues to move interest rates higher (3% rate today and likely moving to 3.5% on December 15th), the average ARM holder will have to absorb significantly higher monthly payments which translates to commensurately less disposable income. … Continue reading ARMs Will Drag Great Britain and The U.S.
More than 24,000 Technology sector employees have been laid off month-to-date making November the worst month of the year for layoffs as Technology companies prepare 2023 budgets. Q4 2022 could rival Q2 2020 when more than 60,000 Technology sector employees were laid off. Q4 2022 is tracking at approximately 37,000 Technology sector employee layoffs. Our … Continue reading Tech Layoffs Are Spiking
Equity indices have rallied today as reported Headline and Core CPI increased by "only" 7.7% and 6.3% Y-O-Y respectively. Many Technology names are up double-digit percentages today on this macro news despite the fact that many companies are cutting heads (it's not just CRM, LYFT, META, MSFT, NFLX, RDFN and SHOP), given the weak economic … Continue reading Sell This Rally
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