Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: jobs
Low wage services jobs are difficult to fill as we recently wrote (we continue to collect anecdotal data that supports our prior writing). Workers are choosing to stay home and collect Federal unemployment benefits rather than be productive. The moral hazard we warned of months ago is here. Should Biden and The Fed choose to … Continue reading Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work
Apple's new Raleigh, NC-area campus announcement is the type of corporate announcement that often flies under the radar. The Raleigh / Research Triangle area is home to many technology companies notably SAS of Cary, NC. The Raleigh-area is home to a highly educated workforce with deep Software experience (not to mention it is a relatively … Continue reading Apple’s New North Carolina Campus Key In AI Race
This year's Super Bowl in Jacksonville, FL had limited fans in attendance. The WWE (tkr: WWE) plans a return to live events in 2H 2021 per last night's earnings call. This Saturday Endeavor's UFC business unit will host approximately 15,000 fans at its in-arena event (also in Jacksonville) and plans to be in Texas for … Continue reading The Return of Live Events
Biden's 10-Year Climate Plan - which the Administration is pursuing without the approval of Congress - will tax American companies and citizens. We expect: more bogus carbon offsetting programs across all industries (including Technology), higher consumer energy prices and job losses for Americans. This centralized government power grab is also sure to create enormous fraud … Continue reading Biden’s Climate Plan Is A Tax On Companies And Individuals
The three-headed Hydra of low labor participation, increased debt levels and higher taxes will cripple U.S. long-term Real GDP growth for decades. Labor participation is not going back to December 2019 levels. To believe that scenario is wishful thinking. For starters, 25% of restaurants and bars are permanently closed. Those jobs are not returning. Second, … Continue reading Brace for Anemic Long-Term Real GDP Growth
Credit spreads will widen in our view primarily driven by job losses and increases in the cost of goods and services. There is downward pressure on jobs as we usher in the fall season. Seasonal summer jobs essentially work their way to zero from Labor Day to Columbus Day. Government jobs around the U.S. Census … Continue reading Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase
Fed Chair Powell's comments on Thursday were in-line with our perspective published on Wednesday. The Fed will continue to work to "stimulate" the economy (it can't of course, it can only inflate asset prices). However, every time Chairman Powell mentioned "full employment" in his speech I couldn't help but think of the job dislocation that's … Continue reading Dovish Fed Policy Speaks to A Weak Economy and Permanent Job Dislocation. We Propose A Solution.
Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor
Dovish Fed Chair Jerome Powell held day 2 of his semi-annual monetary report to Congress today. To summarize, the Fed's got your back if you are a company of most any size, if you participate in the capital markets, if you are a politician looking for a free lunch, if you desire low interest rates … Continue reading This Dove’s Not Crying
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by +2.5 million in May led by a recovery in Leisure and Hospitality. The biggest driver was bars and restaurants ("Food Services and Drinking Establishments"), which added +1.4 million jobs and accounted for 56% of total non-farm payroll additions. Non-farm employment in May improved sequentially and was 13% below February … Continue reading U.S. Economy Improves from COVID Lows Boosted by Bars & Restaurants
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