If July Core CPI comes in higher than the 5.9% figure reported for June we believe there will be a 50% probability that the Fed could raise the Fed Funds Rate in August rather than wait for the September 20-21 FOMC meeting. The Fed is nowhere near a neutral rate (as we wrote earlier this … Continue reading A Fed Hike In August?
Tag: labor force
Federal Reserve officials tout the U.S. economy's strength as the reason why Fed tightening will not tip the economy into recession. The unemployment rate is the preferred metric of Fed officials who are spinning the tale of a strong economy. We provide an alternative. The Fed is expert at one thing - pulling the wool … Continue reading Fed Spin and U.S. Jobs
Whether one measures EV/Revenue multiples, EV/EBITDA multiples, Stock Market P/E multiples or various other measures there is no doubt the market is frothy and that certain sectors are firmly in bubble territory. Two trends are troublesome. The first is that the Market Cap to GDP ratio (measured by the Wilshire 5000 index to Nominal GDP) … Continue reading Stocks Are at A High. Labor Participation Is at A Low.