The fact is that the U.S. economy was more productive from a Labor Force Participation Rate perspective during the Financial Crisis as compared to where it stands today. The Labor Force Participation Rate stood at 66.0% in October 2008 and steadily declined until January 2020 when the Labor Force Participation Rate stood at 63.4%. The … Continue reading Fewer People Are Productive Today As Compared To The 2008 Financial Crisis
Tag: labor participation rate
A byproduct of the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (“PEUC”) program is the job interview "no show", which has become all too common across the Retail sector. The "no show" is where a job candidate skips the job interview because the candidate never intended to obtain a job. Rather, the candidate simply needed to show proof … Continue reading The Job Interview “No Show”
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"), publishes the Labor Participation Rate each month. The Labor Participation Rate accurately reflects the state of labor in the United States. The same government agency also publishes the Unemployment Rate each month (due Friday June 4th). We view the latter as a Government marketing metric as it significantly … Continue reading Labor Participation Outlook: June 2021Premium
Low wage services jobs are difficult to fill as we recently wrote (we continue to collect anecdotal data that supports our prior writing). Workers are choosing to stay home and collect Federal unemployment benefits rather than be productive. The moral hazard we warned of months ago is here. Should Biden and The Fed choose to … Continue reading Workers Choose To Collect Federal Unemployment Benefits Rather Than Work
The three-headed Hydra of low labor participation, increased debt levels and higher taxes will cripple U.S. long-term Real GDP growth for decades. Labor participation is not going back to December 2019 levels. To believe that scenario is wishful thinking. For starters, 25% of restaurants and bars are permanently closed. Those jobs are not returning. Second, … Continue reading Brace for Anemic Long-Term Real GDP Growth
Over the past 11 months and as recently as Tuesday the Federal Reserve has consistently reiterated its mission to get the U.S. Economy back to full employment. We are not there yet. The labor participation rate remains below 2008-2009 financial crisis levels. Let me know your thoughts on the below (particularly if you are on … Continue reading Is The Fed’s View On The Relationship Between Interest Rates and Jobs Wrong?
The Fed would have us believe "There's nothing to see here," (to quote Frank Drebin), as it relates to inflation. Consumer spending funded by government debt is of inferior quality as compared to spending funded by increased production. In January Americans spent their debt-funded government checks that were mailed out at the end of December. … Continue reading Long Rates Continue To Climb As Inflation Persists. Nothing To See Here.