Amazon, Apple, Disney, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Netflix have an advantage over other content companies given their size. By size I am primarily referring to market cap and size of balance sheet. Apple (AAPL, $2.94 Trillion market cap) and Microsoft (MSFT, $2.43 Trillion market cap) are in a league of their own with their nose … Continue reading Apple’s VisionPro Provides A Defensible Edge In The Content Space
As I think about Technology companies in the back half of 2023 and 2024, pricing power has to erode at some point. For companies such as Google, subscription price increases this calendar year have far outpaced revenue growth (higher prices, fewer unit sales). I imagine that many companies that exercised pricing power in 2021, 2022 … Continue reading Pricing Power in 2H 2023 and 2024
I believe that Instagram's Threads product has a better near-term growth opportunity than META's misguided metaverse bet. Will Threads help META steal mojo from TikTok? I doubt it. Don't be fooled - TikTok is the competitor that META is concerned with, not Twitter. We live in a video-based world and most social media growth will … Continue reading Will Instagram Threads Kickstart META’s Growth?
The biggest fight in combat sports history (if it happens) would be Mark "ballot box stuffer" Zuckerberg vs. Elon "the Doge" Musk. UFC President (UFC is a unit of Endeavor, EDR), Dana White wishes to promote the potential MMA contest. Zuck and Musk have traded barbs regarding a potential contest for days. Meta is (or … Continue reading Musk vs. Zuck
META's value proposition to Ad Buyers was permanently impaired by Apple’s implementation of permission-based Ad tracking which has negatively impacted META's price per ad metric for almost two years (see chart and table below). Further adding to META's Ad woes, Google will phase out third-party cookies next year and replace them with its Privacy Sandbox. … Continue reading META’s Ad Problem
Apple is going to win the VR/AR/MR war vs. Meta. Apple simply has more elements it can leverage across its ecosystem to deliver a superior user experience delivered through its forthcoming headset (June 2023). Microsoft will be a bigger VR/AR/MR player than META in due time given the combination of its Productivity apps (perfect for … Continue reading Apple vs. Meta Quest 2
History rhymes. Today feels a lot like 2008 when many investors expected an economic rebound in the back half of 2008. When that did not happen, 2009 was to be the rebound year. 2010 then became the year when the economy would normalize after 2009 proved to be worse than 2008. 2010 presented only a … Continue reading It’s 2008 & Life’s The Same Except For My Shoes
At some point the market has got to reconcile with economic reality. META is a case in point. META's core business is selling Ads. META's price per Ad declined 16% year-over-year for calendar 2022 and declined 22% year-over-year in Q4'22 (unit pricing is likely to get worse in my view in 2023). META's Q4'22 Revenue … Continue reading META and The Market
Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?
The WSJ reports that YouTube is negotiating with the NFL for exclusive rights to broadcast NFL Sunday Ticket. YouTube/Google and Amazon Prime (Thursday night NFL games), are essentially pursuing a U.S. audience with their respective NFL strategies. The NFL ought to court YouTube in particular given that YouTube - not TikTok, not Instagram nor Snap … Continue reading YouTube & The NFL