Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: Microsoft
Analysts estimate that META will grow revenues in 2023 over 2022. However, the estimates I see imply that revenue growth will be back-end loaded. We know how that usually ends. I see META struggling to generate year-over-year Revenue growth and expect for 2023 to be a down Revenue year. Zuckerberg is not an Operator. META's … Continue reading META: Where Will Growth Come From?
Tonight after the close Microsoft (MSFT) made our case for us, specifically that the uncertain macro environment is causing corporate buyers to take a cautious approach to spending. We told you that management teams would feature the word "cautious" during the December '22 earnings calls and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella did just that in the … Continue reading Microsoft Made Our Case For Us
The NASDAQ Composite has had a nice little run, up more than 9% year-to-date. However, I would exercise caution ahead of Tech earnings and the Fed's January 31st / February 1st FOMC meeting. We have written on numerous occasions that we expect management teams to take a conservative approach to 2023 Revenue and EPS guidance. … Continue reading Technology Stocks Are Not Yet In The Clear
Past recessions have taught us that leading Technology companies typically gain marketshare during down economies. I would expect this economic down period to be no different. Good news for Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and others. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT): Amazon's AWS unit and Microsoft's Azure unit will be mixed bags: Usage: Usage - and … Continue reading Technology Leaders Will Gain Share
Irrational valuations still exist, especially in the private market thanks to more than a decade of easy Fed policy. 2023 will be the year that venture firms write down portfolio valuations if they have not done so already. We wrote about OpenAI's natural language offering - ChatGPT - last week. For what it's worth, OpenAI … Continue reading OpenAI’s Rich Valuation
I am not buying the talk that Bob Iger's mission is to identify his successor at Disney (DIS). A sale will most likely be Iger's final act as Disney CEO. Iger already whiffed once with his selection of Bob Chapek as his successor. Iger will not make the same mistake twice. Rather than name a … Continue reading Bob Iger’s Mission? Sell Disney.
I would not be surprised to see Salesforce (CRM) and Oracle (ORCL) combine in 2023 or 2024. A Salesforce, Oracle deal used to be rumored back around the time of CRM's 2004 IPO which raised $110 million. At that time Oracle Co-Founder & CEO Larry Ellison was pushing hard on building ORCL's Application layer (largely … Continue reading Oracle + Salesforce
Lina Khan's FTC is bad news. It reminds me of the FTC during the Obama Administration - quick to pick a fight with companies (I know from first-hand experience), without understanding the competitive landscape or how markets work. In this case, Microsoft's Xbox unit is the platform and Activision is the content publisher that will … Continue reading FTC Sues To Block Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition
AWS is Amazon's (AMZN) most profitable business unit (26% operating margin in the September quarter), and is subsidizing other Amazon business units. While AWS allocates capital to other AMZN business units, competing cloud platforms Azure and Google Cloud are capital allocation recipients. While AWS touts its new, high-end Graviton chips - these chips will compete … Continue reading AWS vs. Azure vs. Google Cloud
Headcount reductions and business closures will hit AWS and Azure in calendar Q4 and 2023. Every time you read about headcount reductions or a startup that failed, that is likely negative news for AWS and Azure as the two remote server platforms (particularly AWS), are leveraged to the number of users and data generated/stored by … Continue reading AWS and Azure Headwinds
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