We've touted NASDAQ 9,000 as a bottom for over a year. That's only 14% off of current levels. Many believe that Technology stocks are cheap, but not in my book. Not in a world where the long-term Fed Funds rate settles around 300 BPS and absent QE. No more Fed put? I can easily imagine … Continue reading No Fed Put – NASDAQ 7,000?
Markets Have Another Leg Down
This spring when I said the NASDAQ would bottom around 9,000 my thinking was as follows: 2022 would be a year where higher interest rates reset equity valuations lower, especially as it relates to the NASDAQ Composite. 2023 would be a year where poor company fundamentals reset equity valuations lower. The NASDAQ has experienced some … Continue reading Markets Have Another Leg Down
The NASDAQ Could Re-Test COVID Lows & The Rise of High Yield
Could the NASDAQ re-test the COVID lows of March 2020 when it sat around 6,900? Yes. That would require a prolonged recession (which we expect) AND The Fed not restarting its ultra-dovish monetary policy of Quantitative Easing combined with a near zero Fed Funds Rate. Who knows how the Fed will behave in 2H 2023 … Continue reading The NASDAQ Could Re-Test COVID Lows & The Rise of High Yield
A NASDAQ Bottom. QT Or Not To QT?
If the Fed raises by 100 BPS tomorrow we believe there is another 10% downside to the NASDAQ before October earnings. We believe the NASDAQ will continue to work lower as the Fed hikes its Fed Funds Rate and as Treasury yields climb. We expect the Fed's rate hiking will stop by early next year … Continue reading A NASDAQ Bottom. QT Or Not To QT?
How Quick To NASDAQ 9,000?
We have written on a number of occasions over the past few months that we believe the NASDAQ Composite will bottom at 9,000. By when? By March 2023. That's 7 months from now if you include March 2023. We need two things to happen in order for investors to capitulate: First, we needed the Fed … Continue reading How Quick To NASDAQ 9,000?
No More Bear Market Rally
Today many non-believers got religion and came to the realization that the Fed will have to raise rates a bit higher (north of 4%?) and hold them there for longer in order to fight inflation. A fall or winter Fed pivot feels like more than wishful thinking.Today was the first Chair Powell speech I've heard … Continue reading No More Bear Market Rally
In Case Of Emergency Break Glass
In the pursuit of curbing price inflation Fed Chair Powell will be willing to break some glass... Speculative asset classes such as crypto, rare automobiles, fine art: YES. This has already happened to a degree, especially as it relates to crypto currencies and publicly-traded companies that have exposure to crypto such as Coinbase (COIN). There … Continue reading In Case Of Emergency Break Glass
Living On The Edge: Investor Sentiment Feels Like 2008
Investors are too optimistic. The economy and markets will get worse before they get better. We climbed high during 2020 and 2021 due to manufactured "stimulus" in the absence of production which could only end in inflation. Given the nose-bleed heights brought on by artificial excess, we have far to fall as markets, asset prices … Continue reading Living On The Edge: Investor Sentiment Feels Like 2008
NASDAQ: Further To Fall
Some months ago we stated that the NASDAQ Composite had 40-50% downside. On March 8th we said another 20-30% downside. This implies a NASDAQ Composite of around 9,000. Thus, we have further to fall. Interest Rates: Rates are going higher regardless of what the Fed does (other than more QE of course). Economy: There will … Continue reading NASDAQ: Further To Fall
NASDAQ Is Social Engineering Boards
NASDAQ's (ticker: NDAQ), Board diversity proposal is one that puts gender and race ahead of meritocracy. Why should someone's gender or race matter regarding Board selection? Also, why should Board member race and gender be tracked and reported? Where does a prospective Board member's career experience fit into this equation? A Board member candidate's reputation … Continue reading NASDAQ Is Social Engineering Boards
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