The "Pretender" auto companies will likely fail because they don't have Elon Musk. While we have been critical of Tesla's corporate governance, there is no denying Elon Musk's persistence. Musk's level of persistence is rare. It is highly unlikely that the Pretenders (NKLA, NIO, RIDE, WKHS) have an Elon Musk among their senior ranks. The … Continue reading There Is Only One Elon Musk
The Electric Vehicle ("EV") valuation bubble is one of many asset bubbles enabled by dovish fiscal and monetary policy and pursued by speculators (both retail traders AND large asset managers such as Fidelity). The EV bubble seems to be largely driven by the presence of a large total addressable market ("TAM") regardless of whether it … Continue reading The Electric Vehicle Bubble
Fraud always spikes during frothy markets. If it feels like we are beating you over the head as it relates to Quality CEOs and CEO Integrity it is because we are. High Quality, High Integrity CEOs are the best preventive measure against getting burned by fraudulent companies. 2020 has delivered massive equity market valuation froth … Continue reading Fraud – A Sign of The Times
Two head-scratching Technology deals. Oracle's TikTok deal appears to be smoke and mirrors while GM's due diligence on its Nikola deal appears to be surface-level at best. Both wreak of desperation. Oracle's TikTok deal is high on sizzle, low on substance. Assuming the Oracle/TikTok deal receives U.S. government approval and ultimately closes (we are not … Continue reading Questionable M&A Strategy (Oracle) and Due Diligence (GM)
Q3'20, Q4'20 and calendar 2021 consensus estimates need to come down. Why? 21% unemployment (U6 measure), permanent economic damage that businesses suffered (and will continue to suffer), as a result of the shutdown, the COVID "back-to-work tax", the threat of a second COVID wave, geopolitical risk, record debt levels and social unrest have created more … Continue reading Expect A Bumpy Ride For The Economy and The Capital Markets Over The Next Several Years.