Investors have lost their minds when it comes to high-flying stocks such as Tesla (TSLA, up 830% over 13 months), Shopify (SHOP, up 210% over 4 months), DataDog (DDOG, up 220% since the March lows), and many other names where valuations are based on anything but the fundamentals. Why? There Is No Alternative (TINA): The … Continue reading TINA, ZIRP, The Future & The Retail Investor
The execution of PPP was poor. A set of well-defined terms provided by Treasury to the SBA and subsequently to the lending financial institutions could have avoided unintended consequences such as various private equity firms, asset managers, law firms and the like "borrowing" money (we use quotation marks as PPP recipients are not required to … Continue reading Questionable PPP Borrowers – A Partial List
We have a growing demand problem as a result of millions of jobs lost to the COVID pandemic (Personal Consumption -13.6% March to April 2020). Many of these jobs are not coming back as companies close permanently, realize they can do more with less and lose market share to competitors. Charts, video and podcasts at … Continue reading Houston, We Have A Demand ProblemPremium
Step 1.) Close down a country: What's done is done. However, one of the consequences of shutting down the United States is that the speculative grade default rate is expected to almost triple - 4.7% to 14.4% - within the next year. Not to speak of the millions of non-public businesses that have suffered revenue … Continue reading How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step ProcessPremium
The economy will not enjoy a "V" recovery. A combination of defaults, bankruptcies, market disruption and high unemployment will make for a gradual recovery. PPP and Fed liquidity will eventually expire. Admittedly the Fed will likely inject more capital into the economy growing its already bloated $6.6 Trillion balance sheet. At some point this all … Continue reading A “V” Recovery Is Not In the Cards
Bank of America (tkr: BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan provided an update about the SBA / PPP loans (tranche II) after Friday's market close. Approximately $24 billion will be extended to 231,000 small businesses. 50,000 promissory notes have been issued and the remaining 180,000 will be extended over the weekend (additional information in the table below). … Continue reading SBA / PPP Small Business Loan Update
Square's (tkr: SQ) Cash App appears to be winning the mind share battle against Venmo, the peer-to-peer ("P2P") payments platform owned by PayPal (tkr: PYPL). We ran a Google Trends analysis on search terms "Cash App" and "Venmo" for two time periods - the past 12 months and the past 30 days - for Google … Continue reading Is Square’s Cash App Winning The P2P War?
Congress will vote on a $484 Billion stimulus plan later this week which includes $250 Billion for the Paycheck Protection Program ("PPP") and $60 Billion for the SBA's Disaster Relief Fund. Congress and the Trump administration are racing to approve this stimulus package. The speed to execute this stimulus is driven by the fact that … Continue reading Expect More SMB Failures Despite Latest $310B SBA Relief