The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
Tag: price inflation
There is no surprise to today's 5.4% reported CPI increase. Price increases of goods and services are here to stay. The Federal Reserve has inflated the money supply significantly since April 2020 without a commensurate increase in productivity. We have another $1 trillion in spending (and money printing), coming associated with the Biden Administration's infrastructure … Continue reading Price Increases Are Here To Stay
We reviewed Zillow (ticker: ZG) Rental data for clues to true rental price inflation. Zillow rental data tells a different story than the Fed's rental survey data (Owners' equivalent rent of residences), which is comprised of hypothetical information based on homeowner assumptions (see page 1, heading labeled: Weights for OER and Rent). The Fed's rental … Continue reading Real Rental Data Tells A Different Story Than The Fed About Price Inflation
The most liquid measure of the money supply - M1 - is up 4.8x since February 2020. Given the exorbitant inflation of the money supply, we are only in the early stages of price inflation. Cash-rich Technology companies can take several steps to combat inflation. Now is not the time for cash-rich Technology companies to … Continue reading How Technology Companies Can Fight Inflation
For a more accurate read on price inflation than the tall tale spun by the CPI, look no further than growth of the money supply. It is the forever growing money supply that enables the Federal Reserve to spend $120 Billion per Month on purchases of Treasuries and Government Agency Securities to maintain artificially low … Continue reading What Is The Real Rate of Price Inflation?
The fact is that the U.S. economy was more productive from a Labor Force Participation Rate perspective during the Financial Crisis as compared to where it stands today. The Labor Force Participation Rate stood at 66.0% in October 2008 and steadily declined until January 2020 when the Labor Force Participation Rate stood at 63.4%. The … Continue reading Fewer People Are Productive Today As Compared To The 2008 Financial Crisis
Cash flow is king in a world smitten by nosebleed valuations and unsustainable spending The Fed's commentary around potentially increasing the Fed Funds Rate in 2023 vs. 2024 reminds me of the equity analyst who would base his valuation case on a P/E multiple applied to an earnings estimate that was five years in the … Continue reading Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy
More bogus CPI numbers reported yesterday (HERE). The CPI itself is a poor price inflation measure given it excludes so many asset classes such as equities, art and crypto. Let's focus on one CPI line item - "food at home" which was up 0.7% over the past 12 months ended May. Sorry, that's a bogus … Continue reading Inflating The Debt Away. Higher Prices Are Here To Stay.
"Inflation" to lead headlines again when CPI data is reported. Real-world price appreciation is well ahead of the Fed's 2% target. If last month was any indication the term "inflation" will dominate market-related headlines when May CPI data is released on Thursday June 10th at 8:30am ET (See Google Trends chart below for search term … Continue reading Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief
It is starting to feel like the 1970's with out of control fiscal spending, inflation and now gas lines. We only have gas lines in certain parts of the country today as local government officials exercised gas price controls during the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. We could very well see similar price control policies from the … Continue reading More Lines To Come With Price Controls