Tag: price inflation

Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

The sooner the Fed gets to where it is going, the sooner it may pause and observe. In addition, Treasury yields remain negative across the yield curve which is not long-term healthy for the economy. The Effective Fed Funds rate range stands at 4.25-4.50%. If the Fed believes that the upper bound should sit at … Continue reading Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS

CPI: A Long Way To Go To 2%

CPI: A Long Way To Go To 2%

Headline CPI came in at 6.5% year-over-year and down -0.1% for the month of December. Core CPI was up 5.7% year-over-year and up 0.3% for December, up from 0.2% in November. Readers know how we feel about price inflation - it is higher than what the government reports. Take "eggs" for example which we recently … Continue reading CPI: A Long Way To Go To 2%

Chip Bonanza Or Money Trap?

Chip Bonanza Or Money Trap?

The problem with the Biden Administration's $76 billion CHIPS Act is that the Federal Government is expert at creating damage and waste. So, what may go wrong with the CHIPS act? Price inflation. Those Trillions of Dollars of COVID stimulus checks were the very cause of price inflation. Any time a Central Bank prints money, … Continue reading Chip Bonanza Or Money Trap?

Price Inflation Ate Savings

Price Inflation Ate Savings

Price inflation was the story of 2021 and 2022. Price inflation is apparent in the Personal Income figures below (see table). The below table includes raw data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis combined with TEK2day analysis. Goods and Services price increases and Interest Expense increases significantly outpaced Personal Income growth. (See the links below … Continue reading Price Inflation Ate Savings

CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

The Cleveland Fed estimates 6.3% Core CPI for November. CPI data will be published on Tuesday. The 6.3% Core CPI estimate sounds about right. One would expect Core CPI to be flat to slightly down in November. I would expect the Fed to push its Fed Funds Rate north of 5% in 1H 2023 and … Continue reading CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High

Core Inflation Is Likely To Track Higher

Core Inflation Is Likely To Track Higher

Core CPI is likely to come in higher for the month of September as compared to the month of August when figures are reported on October 13th. Core CPI is likely to come in higher for the month of September as compared to August on a month-to-month and full year basis primarily due to the … Continue reading Core Inflation Is Likely To Track Higher

Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down

Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates Real GDP for Q3 at 1.4%. That is likely an optimistic outlook and 1% growth is certainly nothing to write home about. Get used to it however as Real GDP in the -1% to 1% range is likely our future for the next decade or two given elevated … Continue reading Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down