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Tag: price inflation
The sooner the Fed gets to where it is going, the sooner it may pause and observe. In addition, Treasury yields remain negative across the yield curve which is not long-term healthy for the economy. The Effective Fed Funds rate range stands at 4.25-4.50%. If the Fed believes that the upper bound should sit at … Continue reading Why The Fed Should Hike By 50 BPS
Headline CPI came in at 6.5% year-over-year and down -0.1% for the month of December. Core CPI was up 5.7% year-over-year and up 0.3% for December, up from 0.2% in November. Readers know how we feel about price inflation - it is higher than what the government reports. Take "eggs" for example which we recently … Continue reading CPI: A Long Way To Go To 2%
The problem with the Biden Administration's $76 billion CHIPS Act is that the Federal Government is expert at creating damage and waste. So, what may go wrong with the CHIPS act? Price inflation. Those Trillions of Dollars of COVID stimulus checks were the very cause of price inflation. Any time a Central Bank prints money, … Continue reading Chip Bonanza Or Money Trap?
Price inflation was the story of 2021 and 2022. Price inflation is apparent in the Personal Income figures below (see table). The below table includes raw data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis combined with TEK2day analysis. Goods and Services price increases and Interest Expense increases significantly outpaced Personal Income growth. (See the links below … Continue reading Price Inflation Ate Savings
The Cleveland Fed estimates 6.3% Core CPI for November. CPI data will be published on Tuesday. The 6.3% Core CPI estimate sounds about right. One would expect Core CPI to be flat to slightly down in November. I would expect the Fed to push its Fed Funds Rate north of 5% in 1H 2023 and … Continue reading CPI Week: Price Inflation Remains Too High
The soft-landing narrative that has started to make a comeback in recent weeks does not make sense. The damage is done. The economic slowing will continue. The global economy is a slow-motion car crash in the making with the U.S., Western Europe and China all suffering the consequences of radical fiscal spending policy combined with … Continue reading No Soft Landing Ahead
CPI figures are due Thursday morning. CPI is a blunt tool at best. We have written on a number of occasions as to why we are not fans of the Government-reported CPI data. To summarize why we dislike the CPI measure: CPI is not a comprehensive measure of price inflation. Much of the price inflation … Continue reading CPI Data Quality Is Low
Core CPI is likely to come in higher for the month of September as compared to the month of August when figures are reported on October 13th. Core CPI is likely to come in higher for the month of September as compared to August on a month-to-month and full year basis primarily due to the … Continue reading Core Inflation Is Likely To Track Higher
The Fed wants a deep recession. There is no getting the CPI back to 2% without crashing the Bubble Economy that it created. The Fed was faced with a choice: a decade of 1970's style stagflation or a deep recession. The Fed wisely chose the latter. The Fed has had to move faster than it … Continue reading The Fed Intends To Cripple The Economy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates Real GDP for Q3 at 1.4%. That is likely an optimistic outlook and 1% growth is certainly nothing to write home about. Get used to it however as Real GDP in the -1% to 1% range is likely our future for the next decade or two given elevated … Continue reading Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down
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