Tag: public debt

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

Our view is that the Fed will only truly pursue an extended tightening course (full wind down of QE followed by rate hikes), if price inflation continues to where the Biden Administration feels it will cost the Democrat Party in the 2022 mid-term elections and/or hurt Biden's chances for re-election in 2024. The Fed is … Continue reading Our View On Fed Tightening and M&A

The Fed Expanded Its Balance Sheet Amidst Tightening Chatter

The Fed Expanded Its Balance Sheet Amidst Tightening Chatter

Amidst the talk of the Fed potentially tightening monetary policy in 2023 or even next year, the Fed expanded its Balance Sheet at its fastest pace since March 17th of this year, growing assets 1.4% from the week prior. This narrative of the Fed potentially becoming more hawkish needs to be put into perspective. With … Continue reading The Fed Expanded Its Balance Sheet Amidst Tightening Chatter

A Breakdown of Biden’s $2.3 Trillion Green New Deal

A Breakdown of Biden’s $2.3 Trillion Green New Deal

If you believe that the Federal Government is an efficient capital allocator you will love Biden's "infrastructure" spending program. Similarly, if you are a "GreenTech" executive or entrepreneur, this massive spending program is shaping up to provide a long-term tail wind. Government officials will have trillions of newly printed capital to play with. Slim chance … Continue reading A Breakdown of Biden’s $2.3 Trillion Green New Deal

Stagflation Is Imminent<span class="badge-status" style="background:red">Premium</span> 

Stagflation Is ImminentPremium 

It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. economy does not experience stagflation. Record debt levels, low labor participation, muted long-term Real GDP growth, persistent inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is limited in its options to fight inflation leads us to believe that stagflation is imminent. Our premium TEK2day … Continue reading Stagflation Is ImminentPremium 

The Fed’s Options To Fight Inflation Are Limited

The Fed’s Options To Fight Inflation Are Limited

The Federal Reserve has two primary tools that it may use to fight inflation: halting the printing press and raising interest rates. The first option is unlikely given Treasury Chief Yellen and Fed Chief Powell are operating in lock step. The Fed is limited in its use of the second option. If the Fed were … Continue reading The Fed’s Options To Fight Inflation Are Limited

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

"There is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program" - Milton Friedman. First is was the financial crisis of 2008 that "forced" the Fed to perform unnatural acts. It was at this time that the Fed introduced Quantitative Easing ("QE"). QE was to be a "one-and-done" program. That program remains part of the Fed's … Continue reading Muted GDP Will Force Investors to Become More Selective

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy - much like the present one - was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic … Continue reading Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower