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Tag: QT
The Fed resumed QT the week ending May 31st having modestly reduced its Treasury and Government Agency security holdings (modest in comparison to the Fed's former QE buying program). Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings decreased by $31.1 billion for the week-ended May 31st and decreased by $59.9 billion on a rolling 4-week basis. Agencies: The Fed’s … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
The Fed's Treasury holdings were unchanged the week-ended May 24th 2023. Minimum QT activity combined with a substantial back door QE program via the BTFP equals QE on a net basis. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were unchanged for the week-ended May 24th and decreased by $72.3 billion on a rolling 4-week basis. Agencies: The Fed’s … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update Premium
The Fed continued with its modest tightening program, reducing its Treasury position by approximately $29 billion over the past week and by $72 billion on a rolling 4-week basis. However, the Fed's Balance Sheet has barely unwound the Fed's enormous inflation of the money supply (2020-2022) as depicted in the chart below. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
The Fed increased its Treasury security holdings by $100 million the week ended May 10th while its Agency security holdings were unchanged. Recall that last week the Fed significantly reduced its Treasury holdings. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings increased by $100 million the week-ended May 10th and were reduced by $57.4 billion on a rolling … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
The Fed significantly reduced its Treasury holdings the week-ended Wednesday May 3rd (i.e. "QT"), but is simultaneously running a QE program in the background to back-stop regional banks. See our "Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program" article for details on bank bailouts. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings were reduced by $43.5 billion the week-ended May … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Consensus is that the Fed will hike its Fed Funds rate by 25 BPS on Wednesday and then pause rate hikes as the Fed observes economic data for an undetermined period of time. The Fed ought to leave the door open for more rate hikes including a rate hike in June. Slow to Act: The … Continue reading One More Rate Hike. Then What?
The Fed's Treasury holdings were unchanged the week ended April 26th. The Fed reduced its Agency holdings by $17 billion over the same period. The Fed's QT effort has been underwhelming in our view. Too bad, as shrinking the money supply through the Fed's balance sheet is a more effective tightening tool than is manipulating … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
The Fed reduced its Treasury holdings by $14.1 billion this week after zero movement last week. The money supply continues to shrink. The prices for goods and services ought to continue to fall so long as the money supply continues to shrink. Treasuries: The Fed’s Treasury security holdings decreased by $14.1 billion the week ended April … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
The Fed's Treasury security holdings and Agency security holdings were unchanged the week-ending Wednesday April 12th. This is a dramatic change from the prior week which saw the Fed reduce its Treasury holdings by $49.7 billion - a record amount for its QT program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is sending mixed messages to the market. … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update
Thursday at 4:30pm ET we will get an updated view of the Fed's Balance Sheet after last week's record Treasury runoff ($49.7 billion). There is more tightening to come not only from the Fed (despite its bank bailout), but from commercial banks. As commercial banks tighten lending standards, they shrink the money supply. The bad … Continue reading More Tightening & Pain To Come
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