Tag: stagflation

Too Little Too Late

Too Little Too Late

Three or four quarter point rate increases in 2022 won't be nearly enough to curb inflation. The Fed does not have the luxury of taking interest rates anywhere near the Volcker-era Fed. Thus, inflation is likley to persist for an extended period of time measured in years not months. Further, we do not believe that … Continue reading Too Little Too Late

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

Google Search Trends: Stagflation

The word "stagflation" is at peak interest at the moment as measured over the most recent 12-month period using Google Trends to calculate search interest. We have beat the drum on stagflation for the past year and some on Wall Street have picked up the baton in recent days. Below we have created a chart … Continue reading Google Search Trends: Stagflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

The Atlanta Fed updated its model for Real GDP ("GDPNow"). The Atlanta Fed's 3.2% Real GDP estimate as of today is down from 3.7% as of September 21st. We have previously written that real GDP growth may very well be zero percent or even negative as we believe the Federal Reserve underestimates true price inflation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation

Instagram, Stagflation, EVs and More Cyberattacks

Instagram, Stagflation, EVs and More Cyberattacks

Instagram is on to APIs. Biden's budget implies stagflation. EV poster child Elon Musk will benefit from Biden's spending plan beginning in 2023. Ransomware attacks continue to expose the fragility of our legacy technology systems. Last month we wrote about API strategy. Instagram (tkr: FB), recently opened its platform via APIs to enable Instagram messages … Continue reading Instagram, Stagflation, EVs and More Cyberattacks

Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief

Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief

"Inflation" to lead headlines again when CPI data is reported. Real-world price appreciation is well ahead of the Fed's 2% target. If last month was any indication the term "inflation" will dominate market-related headlines when May CPI data is released on Thursday June 10th at 8:30am ET (See Google Trends chart below for search term … Continue reading Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief

Treasury Wants More Consumer Spending

Treasury Wants More Consumer Spending

One news item that caught our eye this week was that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (a division of Treasury) wants banks to extend credit to those who lack credit history. Banks plan to share some consumer data with each other in order to build enough history to justify extending credit. Smells … Continue reading Treasury Wants More Consumer Spending

Enhanced Unemployment Benefits Are Hurting Retailers

Enhanced Unemployment Benefits Are Hurting Retailers

Federal programs such as the CARES Act/ Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and other COVID-related Federal handouts are hurting retail businesses. Retail used to be a great way for young people to gain valuable sales and customer experience early in their career. Many readers will have held hourly jobs at grocery stores, restaurants and the like during … Continue reading Enhanced Unemployment Benefits Are Hurting Retailers

The Ugliest Chart I Have Ever Seen

The Ugliest Chart I Have Ever Seen

With the Money Supply (M1) up 358% since January 2020 (as of February 2021), there is simply zero percent probability that prices are not going higher. A 3-4x increase in M1 ought to inflate prices by a similar multiple. Most of the recent $1.9 Trillion (the actual cost will be higher), COVID spending program was … Continue reading The Ugliest Chart I Have Ever Seen