TEK2day

Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets

    Tag: stimulus

    • Tax Refunds as Fiscal Stimulus & Inflation Catalyst

      There are all sorts of fiscal stimulus programs associated with the CARES Act (a COVID relic), that are still in effect. The New York Times recently wrote about the Employee Retention Credit which has provided approximately $150 billion in refunds to date. While Total Tax Refunds as a Percentage of Gross Tax Collections normalized in…

    • It Is Official. We Are In A Recession.

      The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q2 Real GDP estimate was -2.1% as of July 1st. This marks the second consecutive negative Real GDP quarter which means we are officially in a recession. A recession in 2022 was an easy call for us to make as there was essentially zero probability of the U.S. economy growing in…

    • List of 160+ CEOs Who Favor Additional Debt-Funded Transfer Payments To “Stimulate” The U.S. Economy

      The fiscal deficit will be stimulated to new heights once the $1.9 trillion debt package is passed by Congress. Speculative securities, SPAC deal flow, general fraud and moral hazard will also be stimulated along with housing and automobile prices. This debt package will do nothing to create sustainable employment nor sustainable GDP growth. Rather, the…

    • What Does A Contested Election Mean for Markets?

      A contested election will likely translate to increased market volatility and downside risk for equities. The longer the election resolution process, the greater the volatility and downside risk. A potential capital gains tax increase could lead to selling before year-end. SCOTUS justice Samuel Alito left the door open for President Trump initiated litigation with his…

    • Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show

      Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday’s general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday’s election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for…

    • Will The Fed Purchase Equity ETFs Next?

      A well-reasoned, fundamental-based investment process incorporates company-specific analysis combined with industry trends and macro-economic drivers. This approach helps identify valuation “dislocations” which may be leveraged to the upside or downside.   However, fundamentals have never mattered less. Investors’ collective attention is glued to Washington with one eye squarely focused on the Fed and the other on…

    • Markets Are Poised To Grind Lower

      It is going to take several years for the U.S. economy to recover back to 2019 levels. 2019 is a low bar in our view as that economy – much like the present one – was debt-fueled, deficit-ridden and plagued by artificially low interest rates. These factors in the aggregate have stymied sustainable, real economic…

    • Houston, We Have A Demand Problem

      We have a growing demand problem as a result of millions of jobs lost to the COVID pandemic (Personal Consumption -13.6% March to April 2020). Many of these jobs are not coming back as companies close permanently, realize they can do more with less and lose market share to competitors. Charts, video and podcasts at…

    • How to Destroy Productivity & Thwart Innovation: A 4-Step Process

      Step 1.) Close down a country: What’s done is done. However, one of the consequences of shutting down the United States is that the speculative grade default rate is expected to almost triple – 4.7% to 14.4% – within the next year. Not to speak of the millions of non-public businesses that have suffered revenue…