10-year Treasury yields dropped last week from 4.93% on Halloween to 4.58% today as Treasury slowed its pace of new issues and as jobs data was revised downward. However, at some point Treasury is going to rollover a bunch of short-term debt to finance Government operations (as well as longer maturity issues that are due … Continue reading Don’t Get Too Comfortable With The Pullback In the 10-Year Treasury Yield. It Is Going Higher.
Tag: Treasury Secretary Yellen
I would advise the Fed against pausing QT, but perhaps the central bank will pause QT this summer as part of raising the debt ceiling. By "pause" I mean the following: Congress will lift the debt limit this summer (it is not a question of "if" but "when"). Once the debt limit is lifted, Treasury … Continue reading QT Pause This Summer As Part Of Debt Deal?
Why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued short and intermediate-term Treasury securities (Bills and Notes) rather than Bonds when the Fed Funds Rate was at zero percent we will never know. We are now paying the price as the Public Debt rolls over at higher rates. See table below. Treasury Bills: T-Bills can have a maturity … Continue reading The Looming Treasury Debt Bomb
Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Treasury Secretary Yellen's minimum global corporate tax is not yet global law but soon will be. The U.S. and Western European Governments and Central Banks have marched in lock step since 2008's Financial Crisis. A decade-plus of record fiscal spending, accommodative monetary policy (a Keynesian's dream) has led to record, expanding fiscal deficits that will … Continue reading Yellen’s Minimum Global Corporate Tax Is A Big Deal
A digital currency world is coming. The 2022 Beijing Olympics will operate via a digital RMB for local attendees and may include digital cross-border payments as well. Our Federal Reserve is experimenting with digital currency. Both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen have talked down Bitcoin and said the U.S. will move slowly with … Continue reading Square, PayPal, and Apple Will Dominate A Digital Currency World
We recently wrote that weening the equity market and Americans off of easy money will be difficult. We expect The Federal Reserve to march in lockstep with Congress and Treasury rather than act as the independent check on Government the Fed was meant to be. Thus, we expect monetary policy to remain loose for the … Continue reading The Fed’s Evolution From Independent Agency to Treasury Subsidiary