Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities
One news item that caught our eye this week was that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (a division of Treasury) wants banks to extend credit to those who lack credit history. Banks plan to share some consumer data with each other in order to build enough history to justify extending credit. Smells … Continue reading Treasury Wants More Consumer Spending
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the second Government official in five days to mention that the U.S. economy may require interest rates to move higher so that the economy does not overheat (it overheated months ago in our view when one considers asset prices across most every asset category). Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stated … Continue reading Interest Rates To Inch Higher?
Personal Income is on the rise not because U.S. Productivity is increasing, but because the Federal Government decided it was a good idea to print Dollars and distribute them to Americans. This does not make for a sustainably strong economy. Many of these new pandemic "entitlements" (i.e. welfare) are not going away. Mid-term elections are … Continue reading Federal Transfer Payments To Americans Don’t Equal Economic Strength
Treasury Secretary Yellen's minimum global corporate tax is not yet global law but soon will be. The U.S. and Western European Governments and Central Banks have marched in lock step since 2008's Financial Crisis. A decade-plus of record fiscal spending, accommodative monetary policy (a Keynesian's dream) has led to record, expanding fiscal deficits that will … Continue reading Yellen’s Minimum Global Corporate Tax Is A Big Deal
A digital currency world is coming. The 2022 Beijing Olympics will operate via a digital RMB for local attendees and may include digital cross-border payments as well. Our Federal Reserve is experimenting with digital currency. Both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen have talked down Bitcoin and said the U.S. will move slowly with … Continue reading Square, PayPal, and Apple Will Dominate A Digital Currency World
It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. economy does not experience stagflation. Record debt levels, low labor participation, muted long-term Real GDP growth, persistent inflation and the fact that the Federal Reserve is limited in its options to fight inflation leads us to believe that stagflation is imminent. Our premium TEK2day … Continue reading Stagflation Is ImminentPremium
The three-headed Hydra of low labor participation, increased debt levels and higher taxes will cripple U.S. long-term Real GDP growth for decades. Labor participation is not going back to December 2019 levels. To believe that scenario is wishful thinking. For starters, 25% of restaurants and bars are permanently closed. Those jobs are not returning. Second, … Continue reading Brace for Anemic Long-Term Real GDP Growth
The fiscal deficit will be stimulated to new heights once the $1.9 trillion debt package is passed by Congress. Speculative securities, SPAC deal flow, general fraud and moral hazard will also be stimulated along with housing and automobile prices. This debt package will do nothing to create sustainable employment nor sustainable GDP growth. Rather, the … Continue reading List of 160+ CEOs Who Favor Additional Debt-Funded Transfer Payments To “Stimulate” The U.S. Economy