Tag: Treasury

Treasury’s Vicious Debt Cycle

Treasury’s Vicious Debt Cycle

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is campaigning for the U.S. to raise its debt ceiling. This is code for Treasury can't afford to pay down its debt and wants to issue new debt to pay down the old debt. Reducing fiscal spending is the answer, but Washington is used to having its cake and eating it … Continue reading Treasury’s Vicious Debt Cycle

The Looming Treasury Debt Bomb

The Looming Treasury Debt Bomb

Why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued short and intermediate-term Treasury securities (Bills and Notes) rather than Bonds when the Fed Funds Rate was at zero percent we will never know. We are now paying the price as the Public Debt rolls over at higher rates. See table below. Treasury Bills: T-Bills can have a maturity … Continue reading The Looming Treasury Debt Bomb

The Cost of Debt Rises

The Cost of Debt Rises

Management Teams Have Less Discretionary Capital as The Cost of Debt Rises As the cost of debt rises, management teams have less discretionary capital to allocate toward growth initiatives and various sources of competitive differentiation (Product Development for example). Belt tightening will be required as corporate America braces for the new normal of higher input … Continue reading The Cost of Debt Rises

What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?

What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?

Over the past several months we have written that the new economic normal means a target CPI in the 3-4% range and muted Real GDP in the 0-2% range. Interest rates can't go back to the Volcker days as Treasury would not be able to refinance its debt at double-digit rates. We could however see … Continue reading What Will The “New Normal” Look Like?

The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

We do not believe that investors fully appreciate how fragile the U.S. economy is. Our view is that the U.S. economy is in a recession and that this period will be followed by long-term muted growth given: 1.) the enormous U.S. Government debt load ($30.4 trillion), 2.) persistent price inflation, 3.) a consumption-driven economy rather … Continue reading The U.S. Economy Is Long-Term Fragile

Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

The Atlanta Fed updated its model for Real GDP ("GDPNow"). The Atlanta Fed's 3.2% Real GDP estimate as of today is down from 3.7% as of September 21st. We have previously written that real GDP growth may very well be zero percent or even negative as we believe the Federal Reserve underestimates true price inflation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Remains Muted

The Fed & Treasury Are Clearing The Runway For The Digital Dollar

The Fed & Treasury Are Clearing The Runway For The Digital Dollar

The Fed, Treasury and the SEC fired a shot at stablecoins. It feels to us that the three Federal agencies are clearing a path for the digital dollar. Stablecoins are crypto currencies that are pegged to a fiat currency and thus behave similarly to fiat currencies and therefore represent a potential threat to fiat currencies. … Continue reading The Fed & Treasury Are Clearing The Runway For The Digital Dollar

A Tale of Two Cities

A Tale of Two Cities

Make no mistake, Biden's $2.3 Trillion "infrastructure" spending program and $1.8 Trillion "American Families" spending program will pass Congress. That's bad news for Americans and small business and good news for Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT). **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book "Stagflation Is Imminent": HERE First: we would not be having this conversation if the Federal … Continue reading A Tale of Two Cities