Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: valuation
We compared the year-over-year percentage change in M2 (measured each month) to the year-over-year percentage change in the NASDAQ Composite (measured each month on a one-month lag) and found a strong correlation as measured by a correlation coefficient of 81.7%. Our analysis covered the percentage change in M2 from April 2020 (when the money supply … Continue reading Strong Correlation Between M2 Growth & NASDAQ Composite Growth
Cash flow is king in a world smitten by nosebleed valuations and unsustainable spending The Fed's commentary around potentially increasing the Fed Funds Rate in 2023 vs. 2024 reminds me of the equity analyst who would base his valuation case on a P/E multiple applied to an earnings estimate that was five years in the … Continue reading Cash Flow Is King In A Bubble Economy
One of the great distortions caused by the joint fiscal and monetary policy of 2020 and 2021 is that equities and the lowest-rated non-investment grade credits are two of the all too rare places where investors may earn a return. Savers and Fixed Income investors be damned. Many companies are enjoying their stocks trading at … Continue reading Investors Should Ask More of Their Management Teams
Consider the Fintech and Information Services sector. Depending upon how you define it, the sector trades at approximately 30x Operating Cash Flow ("OCF"). If Company X generates $1 billion in Operating Cash Flow today, the Net Income input will have been taxed at 28% under Biden's proposal vs. the current 21% Federal corporate income tax … Continue reading A Corporate Tax Hike Will Be A Double Whammy On Valuations
Earlier this week Broadridge (BR) agreed to acquire trading platform Itiviti for $2.5 Billion in an all cash deal from PE firm Nordic Capital. This demonstrates that growth is valued at a premium as it values Itiviti at approximately 34x 2020 Non-GAAP Operating Income and 10x 2020 Revenue. Itiviti is growing organic revenues faster than … Continue reading Broadridge’s Acquisition of Itiviti. Nothing Is Cheap.
Microsoft's (tkr: MSFT), LinkedIn business unit specializes in entity data and related content similar to ZoomInfo (tkr: ZI). Given ZoomInfo's inflated valuation, Microsoft would likely unlock significant shareholder value were it to spin-off LinkedIn as a separately-traded business. A 20x multiple (par for the course in today's richly-valued Software market and a haircut to ZI's … Continue reading A LinkedIn Spin-Off Could Unlock Significant Value For Microsoft
Palantir (tkr: PLTR) is not a Software company no matter how hard it may try. It appears that Palantir has allocated a portion of Costs of Goods Sold to General & Administrative expenses in order to boost Gross Margins in-line with Software company Gross Margins (click here for PLTR table). Doing so helped PLTR benefit … Continue reading Palantir Is Not A Software Company
The "Pretender" auto companies will likely fail because they don't have Elon Musk. While we have been critical of Tesla's corporate governance, there is no denying Elon Musk's persistence. Musk's level of persistence is rare. It is highly unlikely that the Pretenders (NKLA, NIO, RIDE, WKHS) have an Elon Musk among their senior ranks. The … Continue reading There Is Only One Elon Musk
We recently wrote about the "Speculation Era" in Tech stocks. It doesn't have to be this way. Institutional investors don't have a gun to their heads forcing them to chase performance in companies such as TSLA and SNOW. Yet many are doing just that, throwing time-tested investment principles out the window. Many justify their outrageously … Continue reading The Valuation Circus Is In Town
Given Snowflake's rich valuation, it may be time for Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft to spin-off GCP, AWS and Azure. Snowflake priced its IPO yesterday and the stock closed up 112% to $253.93 for a valuation of approximately $70 billion. Assuming calendar year 2020 revenue of $500 million implies a MV/Revenue multiple of 140x. The combination … Continue reading Time to Spin-Off AWS, Azure and GCP
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