Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: Venture Capital
The money supply and commercial bank deposits are shrinking as interest rates move higher - which suggests a forthcoming credit crunch. However, if you want a less academic leading indicator, look to the venture capital industry. The NVCA and Pitchbook have published Q2 venture data HERE. The data shows shrinking deal velocity, volumes and valuations. … Continue reading The Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Venture Investing As Leading Indicators
Seems obvious, but now would be a good time for those that are flush with cash to step into the breach as commercial banks tighten. Traditional Asset Managers, Private Equity firms, Venture Capital firms and cash-rich Corporates are all in a position to lend to the mid-market as banks pull back. Credit spreads are widening … Continue reading Good Time To Be A Non-Bank Lender
Venture Debt is a risky way to earn a return (just as SVIB) - especially when the source of capital is customer deposits as opposed to long-term limited partner capital for example. Extending loans to Technology firms that aren't generating cash, or in many cases that are not generating revenue is a risky bet. The … Continue reading Venture Debt & SVBPremium
The Fed slightly reduced its T-Bill holdings this week. That was the extent of its QT effort. Meanwhile, crypto lender Silvergate went down for the count earlier this week. In addition, Silicon Valley Bank (ticker: SIVB) lost 60% of its market value on Thursday and is off another 22% in the aftermarket as Tech VC … Continue reading The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) UpdatePremium
AR, VR and other new product initiatives are not the answer for fixing SNAP. Ad Revenue lost to iOS changes is not coming back. Further, SNAP lacks META's scale and TikTok's "cool" factor which makes it impossible to command top Ad rates. Last, this is not exactly the optimal environment to be pitching Ads. Small, … Continue reading M&A Is The Answer For Snap
The Fed has created more zombie companies than any zombie apocalypse. The late great George Romero has nothing on the Fed. We are praying, crossing fingers and toes that the Fed will end QE and not support Government-led corporate bailouts with its money printing ability. Wishful thinking? Maybe. However, if nobody pushes back on the … Continue reading Allow Zombie Companies To Fail & Sanity To Return To The Markets
The grow-at-all-costs venture capital culture of the past 20-plus years ruins companies. How? Far too much focus is placed on revenue growth at the expense of sound operations and profitability. Too many venture-backed companies grow at a pace that far outstrips those companies' ability to scale operations in a manner that supports growth. The result … Continue reading VC Culture Ruins Companies
META's remake is no sure bet. The Facebook blue business is yesterday's business. Its best attribute is that it generates significant free cash flow that may be deployed toward remaking the company.Instagram is in the process of being retooled. IG's recommendation algos are being rewritten to more closely match TikTok's - meaning users would see … Continue reading META’s Remake Is No Sure Bet
Here is our follow-up to our recent article Facebook Will Be Next. We have stated on a number of occasions that social media companies such as Meta/Facebook and Twitter overstate the number of active users given that the active user metric is a self-reported figure and given that no outside firm has the ability to … Continue reading Facebook and The Blockchain
Amazon is developing a reputation for poor deal etiquette. Specifically (as reported by the WSJ), Amazon is using intelligence gathered by its venture arm during deal due diligence to develop competitive offerings. Microsoft, Google, Walmart, Alibaba, Shopify and others will likely capture a percentage of venture and M&A deal flow that otherwise would have gone … Continue reading Poor Reputations Travel Quickly
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