The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
Tag: wage inflation
The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
There is no surprise to today's 5.4% reported CPI increase. Price increases of goods and services are here to stay. The Federal Reserve has inflated the money supply significantly since April 2020 without a commensurate increase in productivity. We have another $1 trillion in spending (and money printing), coming associated with the Biden Administration's infrastructure … Continue reading Price Increases Are Here To Stay
"Inflation" to lead headlines again when CPI data is reported. Real-world price appreciation is well ahead of the Fed's 2% target. If last month was any indication the term "inflation" will dominate market-related headlines when May CPI data is released on Thursday June 10th at 8:30am ET (See Google Trends chart below for search term … Continue reading Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief
It is starting to feel like the 1970's with out of control fiscal spending, inflation and now gas lines. We only have gas lines in certain parts of the country today as local government officials exercised gas price controls during the Colonial Pipeline shutdown. We could very well see similar price control policies from the … Continue reading More Lines To Come With Price Controls
Our past two articles focused on Advanced Automation manifested through the application of broadly-defined Artificial Intelligence as applied to Enterprise Software. Continuing the Advanced Automation theme, we expect food producers, automobile producers, retailers and other operations to accelerate their adoption of various forms of advanced automation including Robotics and automated payments (think Amazon Go's cashierless … Continue reading Inflation and Regulation Will Accelerate Adoption of Advanced Automation
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.
Fed Chair Powell does not understand the relationship between Federal welfare ("stimulus") programs and wage inflation. Per Fed Chair Powell's prepared remarks on Wednesday, Mr. Powell seems completely oblivious to the fact that fiscal "stimulus" programs are counterproductive to low-wage services sector employment. For example, Powell commented that he was concerned by the "level of … Continue reading Inflation Is Here To Stay. Powell Likely Has Lost Control.
Federal programs such as the CARES Act/ Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and other COVID-related Federal handouts are hurting retail businesses. Retail used to be a great way for young people to gain valuable sales and customer experience early in their career. Many readers will have held hourly jobs at grocery stores, restaurants and the like during … Continue reading Enhanced Unemployment Benefits Are Hurting Retailers