State-Led Capitalism

State-Led Capitalism

Private markets are no longer primarily determined by the actions of private buyers and sellers. The State now controls private markets as the primary mover. Guessing the timing, scale and duration of massive fiscal and monetary programs has superseded if not largely replaced fundamental analysis. That's not to say that fundamentals do not matter, but … Continue reading State-Led Capitalism

Near-Term Consumer Price Inflation Risk Is Likely Low

Near-Term Consumer Price Inflation Risk Is Likely Low

Despite a record increase in the Money Supply (M2) the U.S. economy likely will not experience near-term consumer price inflation given less than robust Personal Consumption. Further expansionary monetary policy will increase price inflation risk, particularly if Personal Consumption continues to rebound. This story is most efficiently told with pictures and captions. Click on any … Continue reading Near-Term Consumer Price Inflation Risk Is Likely Low

Federal Reserve Discloses Corporate Bond Purchases

Federal Reserve Discloses Corporate Bond Purchases

Here is the full Excel workbook disclosure compiled by the Federal Reserve which lists the various issuers, sectors, cusips, coupons, maturity dates, par values, amortized costs and more for the fixed income securities the Federal Reserve has purchased. Among the securities purchased through June 16th, 48.1% were "AAA, AA and A" rated, 48.3% were "BBB" … Continue reading Federal Reserve Discloses Corporate Bond Purchases

SPAC City

SPAC City

SPACs are popular at the moment accounting for approximately 38% of IPO activity through May. Pershing Square filed for the largest SPAC on record earlier this week with its $3 billion Pershing Square Tontine Holdings filing. SPAC filings of Pershing Square's size suggest more competition for private equity firms may be forthcoming. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater

It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

Corporate debt is at a record $10.5 trillion (chart 1). Yet as a percentage of U.S. corporate equity market values, debt is a small percentage relative to previous years (chart 2). Thank the Fed for boosting equity valuations. Smart, heavily-levered companies used the opportunity presented over the past few weeks to capitalize on inflated equity … Continue reading It May Not Be Too Late To Issue Equity

Fed’s Rosengren Anxious To Show He Can Spend With The Best

Fed’s Rosengren Anxious To Show He Can Spend With The Best

No Federal Reserve official is going to balk at the opportunity to print and spend money, expanding upon the Fed's debt-financed portfolio. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren is chomping at the bit to execute the Fed's Main Street Lending Program. The Credit Markets Are Functioning Properly The Fed's emergency stimulus was supposed … Continue reading Fed’s Rosengren Anxious To Show He Can Spend With The Best

Long-Term Bullish On RIA/Private Client/Trust Investment Services

Long-Term Bullish On RIA/Private Client/Trust Investment Services

I traded text messages with a friend who is contemplating a Chief Investment Officer role with a large RIA firm. Increasingly it seems Portfolio Managers who spent much of their career working for large, long-only investment managers are looking for a change to where they can operate with more flexibility and creativity. The RIA/Private Client/Trust … Continue reading Long-Term Bullish On RIA/Private Client/Trust Investment Services

There Is No Substitute For In-Person Due Diligence

There Is No Substitute For In-Person Due Diligence

This week Wirecard announced that EUR 1.9 billion of cash is missing. A trip to the company's profit center would have spared investors from suffering a major headache and major losses. The Financial Times put forth a detailed case about Wirecard's red flag-waving accounting practices in its October 2019 article: "Wirecard’s suspect accounting practices revealed," … Continue reading There Is No Substitute For In-Person Due Diligence