The capital markets would likely experience volatility in the coming weeks should the U.S. Supreme Court take up the Trump campaign's case regarding General Election results in the state of Pennsylvania. We expect the SCOTUS to do so. On Wednesday Pennsylvania judge Patricia McCullough (R) halted further vote certification until her evidentiary hearing Friday morning … Continue reading Pennsylvania Is Getting Interesting. Market Volatility Ahead?
Polling should show a Biden lead going into Tuesday's general election given that Democrats have historically participated in early voting in significantly larger numbers than have Republicans. Too Close To Call We believe that Tuesday's election between two fiscally irresponsible parties will be closer than many voters anticipate. Various polls show an early lead for … Continue reading Tuesday’s Election Will Be Closer Than What Polls Show
Technology companies are accelerating share repurchase activity in the face of economic uncertainty and record high share prices. This runs counter to our preference which is to invest for long-term growth. Apple (AAPL) spent $72 billion on share repurchases in the fiscal year ended September 30th, up from $67 billion last year. AAPL cash flows. … Continue reading Share Repurchase Activity Is Accelerating at The Expense of Investing for Growth
Credit spreads will widen in our view primarily driven by job losses and increases in the cost of goods and services. There is downward pressure on jobs as we usher in the fall season. Seasonal summer jobs essentially work their way to zero from Labor Day to Columbus Day. Government jobs around the U.S. Census … Continue reading Credit Spreads Will Widen as Job Losses Mount and Supply-Side Costs Increase
Companies have pulled forward a significant amount of future earnings. The question is: "How much"? Back in April Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella said the company experienced two years of digital transformation in two months. Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), Square (SQ), PayPal (PYPL) and other e-commerce players have undoubtedly pulled earnings forward as COVID accelerated … Continue reading How Much Future Earnings Have We Pulled Forward?