The soft-landing narrative that has started to make a comeback in recent weeks does not make sense. The damage is done. The economic slowing will continue. The global economy is a slow-motion car crash in the making with the U.S., Western Europe and China all suffering the consequences of radical fiscal spending policy combined with … Continue reading No Soft Landing Ahead
Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has reversed her tax cut plan that was announced several weeks ago. The markets feared such a plan would further stoke inflation flames. Political opponents cowered at the thought of having less taxpayer revenue to waste away. The problem with Truss' plan is that it did not go far enough. … Continue reading Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal
Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.
Prices need to fall across the economy to really kickstart economic growth to the point where Americans can feel it. Unfortunately this is not going to happen. Prices and interest rates will plateau, yet they will remain elevated as the economy stalls. We have a word for this economic condition - Stagflation. If you regularly … Continue reading Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.
U.K. and European Concerns
If I were acquiring companies on the corporate side or covering stocks, I would be concerned about Europe - the U.K. in particular - headed into winter as Energy prices are expected to spike. Higher inflation and higher interest rates will have a negative impact on many of the former FinTech, Enterprise Software and Business … Continue reading U.K. and European Concerns
Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates Real GDP for Q3 at 1.4%. That is likely an optimistic outlook and 1% growth is certainly nothing to write home about. Get used to it however as Real GDP in the -1% to 1% range is likely our future for the next decade or two given elevated … Continue reading Prices Up, Personal Consumption Down
Yield Curve Inversion Implies Near-Term Risk
The Treasury yield curve continued to invert as short rates climbed higher and long rates fell. The 1-Year climbed to 3.14%, the 2-Year rose to 3.10% while the 7, 10, 20 and 30-Year Treasury yields all fell (see table below). The Treasury market is telling us that it expects a near-term recession by way of … Continue reading Yield Curve Inversion Implies Near-Term Risk
The Fed Won’t Have A Free Lunch
The Fed raised its Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points today as we and many others expected. The problem is that it is too little too late. It will be impossible for the Federal Reserve and its perma-dove Chairman Jerome Powell to take CPI back down to 2% in relatively short order without causing … Continue reading The Fed Won’t Have A Free Lunch
Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown
Whether it is the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or CNBC, the business press fails to mention price inflation as a primary factor behind the economic slowdown as measured by Real GDP of 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the Delta variant are not exclusively responsible for the stagflationary period we are about to embark on where … Continue reading Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown
Real GDP Growth Remains Muted
The Atlanta Fed updated its model for Real GDP ("GDPNow"). The Atlanta Fed's 3.2% Real GDP estimate as of today is down from 3.7% as of September 21st. We have previously written that real GDP growth may very well be zero percent or even negative as we believe the Federal Reserve underestimates true price inflation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Remains Muted
It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
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