Operating at the Intersection of Technology and the Capital Markets
Tag: GDP
If Fed Chair Jerome Powell puts any credence in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, the Fed will raise its Fed Funds Rate by another 25 BPS on September 20th. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast puts Q3 GDP growth at 5.9% as of August 24th (see chart below). The GDPNow forecast will be updated on August 31st. Source: … Continue reading Rates Are Moving Higher If Powell Believes The Atlanta Fed
Here's betting that Real GDP for Q2 2023 will be revised downward in the months to come. Many investors don't pay attention to downward revisions, but they are coming in my view. My view is that Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) better reflects the state of the economy than does Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). … Continue reading Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Tells A Different Story Than GDP
Sure, Palantir (ticker: PLTR), is a fine Info Services company with a predictive analytics platform at its core. However, given the heavy nature of its customer deployments, PLTR can't scale the way AWS, Azure and GCP scale. In fact, Palantir sits on top of AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So, what are investors so excited … Continue reading More AI Madness
The price increases of goods and services in 2021, 2022 and YTD combined with higher interest rates have ensured that a recession will follow. The economic damage is done. The Fed could take interest rates to zero percent tomorrow and restart QE and it would not stave off this recession. Prices for goods and services … Continue reading This Economic Recession Is Baked In
We are in and have been in a recession since early/mid 2020. It will get worse. Is Nominal GDP approximately accurate? It's not perfect, but it's directionally correct in my view. Is CPI approximately accurate? Not by a long shot. True price inflation for goods and services was and is far higher than the Government … Continue reading We Are In A Recession
Washington politicians, Treasury officials and Federal Reserve bankers ought to think twice about further leveraging the U.S. Economy. Bailouts and Government subsidies are not the solution to building a robust free market economy (nor to winning elections). What do we have to show for the massive debt issuance that takes place each year? Moral hazard … Continue reading Diminishing Public Debt Returns
The soft-landing narrative that has started to make a comeback in recent weeks does not make sense. The damage is done. The economic slowing will continue. The global economy is a slow-motion car crash in the making with the U.S., Western Europe and China all suffering the consequences of radical fiscal spending policy combined with … Continue reading No Soft Landing Ahead
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has reversed her tax cut plan that was announced several weeks ago. The markets feared such a plan would further stoke inflation flames. Political opponents cowered at the thought of having less taxpayer revenue to waste away. The problem with Truss' plan is that it did not go far enough. … Continue reading Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal
Prices need to fall across the economy to really kickstart economic growth to the point where Americans can feel it. Unfortunately this is not going to happen. Prices and interest rates will plateau, yet they will remain elevated as the economy stalls. We have a word for this economic condition - Stagflation. If you regularly … Continue reading Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.
If I were acquiring companies on the corporate side or covering stocks, I would be concerned about Europe - the U.K. in particular - headed into winter as Energy prices are expected to spike. Higher inflation and higher interest rates will have a negative impact on many of the former FinTech, Enterprise Software and Business … Continue reading U.K. and European Concerns
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