Tag: GDP

Rates Are Moving Higher If Powell Believes The Atlanta Fed

Rates Are Moving Higher If Powell Believes The Atlanta Fed

If Fed Chair Jerome Powell puts any credence in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, the Fed will raise its Fed Funds Rate by another 25 BPS on September 20th. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast puts Q3 GDP growth at 5.9% as of August 24th (see chart below). The GDPNow forecast will be updated on August 31st. Source: … Continue reading Rates Are Moving Higher If Powell Believes The Atlanta Fed

Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Tells A Different Story Than GDP

Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Tells A Different Story Than GDP

Here's betting that Real GDP for Q2 2023 will be revised downward in the months to come. Many investors don't pay attention to downward revisions, but they are coming in my view. My view is that Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) better reflects the state of the economy than does Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). … Continue reading Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Tells A Different Story Than GDP

More AI Madness

More AI Madness

Sure, Palantir (ticker: PLTR), is a fine Info Services company with a predictive analytics platform at its core. However, given the heavy nature of its customer deployments, PLTR can't scale the way AWS, Azure and GCP scale. In fact, Palantir sits on top of AWS, Azure and Google Cloud. So, what are investors so excited … Continue reading More AI Madness

Diminishing Public Debt Returns

Diminishing Public Debt Returns

Washington politicians, Treasury officials and Federal Reserve bankers ought to think twice about further leveraging the U.S. Economy. Bailouts and Government subsidies are not the solution to building a robust free market economy (nor to winning elections). What do we have to show for the massive debt issuance that takes place each year? Moral hazard … Continue reading Diminishing Public Debt Returns

Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal

Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal

U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has reversed her tax cut plan that was announced several weeks ago. The markets feared such a plan would further stoke inflation flames. Political opponents cowered at the thought of having less taxpayer revenue to waste away. The problem with Truss' plan is that it did not go far enough. … Continue reading Liz Truss’ Disappointing Reversal

Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.

Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.

Prices need to fall across the economy to really kickstart economic growth to the point where Americans can feel it. Unfortunately this is not going to happen. Prices and interest rates will plateau, yet they will remain elevated as the economy stalls. We have a word for this economic condition - Stagflation. If you regularly … Continue reading Prices Need To Decline To Kickstart Real GDP Growth. Don’t Hold Your Breath.