The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation
Tag: inflation tax
Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022
The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast
Fed Chair Powell's statement to be made Tuesday at 10:00am ET to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs acknowledges that inflation may not be as "transitory" as the Fed initially thought. Powell's statement to the committee is below. Powell knew this would be the case months ago but the Fed will never admit … Continue reading Powell Acknowledges Inflation Could Persist Longer Than Anticipated
There is no surprise to today's 5.4% reported CPI increase. Price increases of goods and services are here to stay. The Federal Reserve has inflated the money supply significantly since April 2020 without a commensurate increase in productivity. We have another $1 trillion in spending (and money printing), coming associated with the Biden Administration's infrastructure … Continue reading Price Increases Are Here To Stay
More bogus CPI numbers reported yesterday (HERE). The CPI itself is a poor price inflation measure given it excludes so many asset classes such as equities, art and crypto. Let's focus on one CPI line item - "food at home" which was up 0.7% over the past 12 months ended May. Sorry, that's a bogus … Continue reading Inflating The Debt Away. Higher Prices Are Here To Stay.
"Inflation" to lead headlines again when CPI data is reported. Real-world price appreciation is well ahead of the Fed's 2% target. If last month was any indication the term "inflation" will dominate market-related headlines when May CPI data is released on Thursday June 10th at 8:30am ET (See Google Trends chart below for search term … Continue reading Jerome Powell: Inflator-in-Chief
The Fed likely won't taper asset purchases this calendar year. It should, but it won't. **Purchase our Amazon Kindle book Stagflation Is Imminent: HERE We previously mentioned mid-term elections as one reason why the Fed won't take away the punch bowl. Second, the Labor Participation rate - a key economic indicator for the Fed - … Continue reading The Fed Will Not Taper In 2021. Inflation Is Not Transitory.