Tag: inflation tax

Inflation: Why We Have It & How To Fix It.

Inflation: Why We Have It & How To Fix It.

Price inflation is no great mystery. It's a function of Money Supply growth that is not tied to Productivity. The remedy is simple: The U.S. must spend less and produce more. Government spending was $6.8 Trillion in 2021, $4.5 Trillion of which (66% of total spending, 19% of GDP) went to Entitlements. The U.S. ran … Continue reading Inflation: Why We Have It & How To Fix It.

Will Powell Surprise To The Upside?

Will Powell Surprise To The Upside?

The Fed's FOMC meeting will take place this week on June 14th and 15th. Fed Chair Powell has lost control of the inflation narrative. The Fed needs to act boldly to capture control of the inflation narrative. Price inflation was obviously never going to be transitory given the Fed grew the money supply as measured … Continue reading Will Powell Surprise To The Upside?

Too Little Too Late

Too Little Too Late

Three or four quarter point rate increases in 2022 won't be nearly enough to curb inflation. The Fed does not have the luxury of taking interest rates anywhere near the Volcker-era Fed. Thus, inflation is likley to persist for an extended period of time measured in years not months. Further, we do not believe that … Continue reading Too Little Too Late

Inflation: A Visual Representation

Inflation: A Visual Representation

Inflation is the result when money supply growth outpaces an economy's ability to produce goods and services. We use M2 in the below chart to represent the money supply (the thin blue line). We use the The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Real GDP as productivity proxies. The PPI is measured by the thin red … Continue reading Inflation: A Visual Representation

Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

Whether it is the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg or CNBC, the business press fails to mention price inflation as a primary factor behind the economic slowdown as measured by Real GDP of 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the Delta variant are not exclusively responsible for the stagflationary period we are about to embark on where … Continue reading Inflation Is A Primary Driver Behind The Economic Slowdown

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

The CPI data category "Owners' Equivalent Rent" ("OER"), uses data derived from surveys of homeowners in select markets rather than real world data. This technique allows the BLS and the Federal Reserve to understate price inflation. OER understates CPI by 1% or more. September's 5.4% CPI increase was understated by at least 1% per our … Continue reading How The CPI’s Fuzzy Math Understates Inflation

Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Economists pushing the narrative that Real GDP growth will climb back to mid-single-digit percentages in 2022 have got it wrong. The combination of persistent price inflation and weak labor participation will ensure that Real GDP remains range bound between zero and 2%. The sooner Wall Street pundits learn to say "Stagflation" the more honest conversation … Continue reading Real GDP Growth Will Not Rebound In 2022

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast

The Fed's "Fed Funds Rate" forecast for the next several years is not realistic. Our view is that the Fed will move to raise its Fed Funds Rate more quickly than its published forecast (see page 2 of 17). The Fed anticipates median Fed Funds Rates of 0.3%, 1.0% and 1.8% in 2022, 2023 and … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate Will Increase Faster Than Fed’s Forecast