So much for the Fed trimming its Balance Sheet by $95 billion per month. The Fed has expanded its asset base during the month of August. Fed assets stood at $8.9 trillion as of Wednesday August 10th. It is difficult to allocate this Federal Reserve any credibility as it relates to mitigating price inflation or … Continue reading QT or QE?
We wrote yesterday that we would be surprised if the Fed follows through on its stated plan to reduce its balance sheet by $95 billion per month as it seeks to unwind the heavy hand it played in 2020 and 2021 by subsidizing fiscal stimulus programs and executing its QE program. Robust Fed balance sheet … Continue reading No QT as Far as The Eye Can See
10-year Treasury yields sit around 2.72% and will climb higher as the Fed: a.) lifts the Fed Funds Rate and, b.) trims its balance sheet (i.e. quantitative tightening "QT"). There is no scenario in which the Fed executes QT only to have Treasury yields move lower. It is simply a question of supply and demand. … Continue reading Treasury Yields Will Only Move In One Direction
The Atlanta Fed's real GDP estimate of 3.7% is well below inflation as measured by the Fed (CPI of 5.4%) and well below any real world price inflation measure. We do not subscribe to the Fed's theory that price inflation is transitory. Our view is that price inflation will grow from here. If real GDP … Continue reading It Is Beginning To Look Like Stagflation
Despite a record increase in the Money Supply (M2) the U.S. economy likely will not experience near-term consumer price inflation given less than robust Personal Consumption. Further expansionary monetary policy will increase price inflation risk, particularly if Personal Consumption continues to rebound. This story is most efficiently told with pictures and captions. Click on any … Continue reading Near-Term Consumer Price Inflation Risk Is Likely Low
The Federal Reserve is crowding out private capital. It has engaged in what feels like perpetual quantitative easing ("QE") since 2008. The Fed buying corporate credit is the latest perversion from this increasingly political institution. Federal Reserve assets continue to grow pushing against the $7 Trillion mark. Fed assets could potentially cross the $10 Trillion … Continue reading The Fed Is Crowding Out Private CapitalPremium