Too many bulge bracket firms are dismissing the chance of a 75 basis point increase by the Fed tomorrow. Variance of expectations means greater potential for volatility (i.e. downside risk). Over the weekend we stated that we believe there is a 50% probability that the Fed will raise its Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis … Continue reading Wednesday Could Get Bloody for Equities
The Financial press has pushed a variety of narratives around interest rate hikes. One narrative is that four 25 basis point increases are priced into the market. Maybe, maybe not.A second narrative that was pushed yesterday was that a 50 basis point increase for the Fed's March meeting was priced in. Unlikely so in our … Continue reading Rate Hikes Are Not Perfectly Priced In
The ICE BofAML Bond Volatility Index (MOVE) began its march higher on October 1st and has not looked back. There has been an inverse relationship between MOVE and the Russell 2000 Index this year which suggests more equity market volatility is around the corner. https://soundcloud.com/ceorater
Our recent CEORater Podcast regarding algo-driven volatility in the equity markets: I would love to get your feedback as to how you approach algo-driven volatility in your market analysis/ models.