The market is trading on speculation. Fundamentals don't matter now. Fundamentals will matter again. The Fed can print only so much money before inflation rears its ugly head. We can't continue to devalue the dollar as a matter of long-term monetary policy without consequences. Our "print first, ask questions later" monetary policy and "subsidize everything" … Continue reading Mr. Market Is Trading On Speculation. Fundamentals Will Matter Again.
Tag: U.S. economy
The depression will be deep and broad. Yes, even the beloved Enterprise Software sector will be impacted despite investors who believe the sector is impervious to negative inputs. The bullet points below are not hypothetical puts to the economy. They are real and are happening now. Banks are tightening credit. Commercial bankers are tightening now. … Continue reading The Pain Is Coming & The Recovery Will Be Uneven
The most recent estimates by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict a late May 2020 acceleration in new COVID-19 cases and deaths. The latest projections by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health predict that new COVID-19 cases and deaths will rebound in late May (nationally), as states relax stay-at-home restrictions. The researchers … Continue reading Late May COVID-19 Ramp?
19 states began to reopen for business in a limited capacity. States adhered to the Phase I protocol recently outlined by the Trump Administration (we covered here), a key component of which includes social distancing/ limiting occupancy. 20-50% business occupancy limits are common with most states closer to 20%. These limitations will certainly hinder an … Continue reading Reopening America: The Numbers
Headcount reductions continue. We have updated our list of recent Tech company layoffs. Access the Excel version HERE. The PDF version may be accessed HERE. It is difficult to imagine a snap economic recovery as companies continue to shed talented people. The mythical "V" recovery would require all components of the global economy to recover … Continue reading Tech Layoffs & The Mythical “V” Recovery
The macro trade where stocks fell in unison in late March only to recover in unison in early April is doomed to fail. We will re-test market lows. A staggered economic recovery will require that investors identify "winning" stocks coming out of the downturn and avoid "value traps". Life is about who you choose to … Continue reading Investors: Sharpen Your Pencils!
A COVID-19 vaccine is required to restore public confidence. Public confidence is required to kick start the global economy on its path to normal productivity levels. Similarly, the equity and credit markets will require public confidence and a healthy economy to return to sustainable growth. The COVID vaccine must be in production and readily available … Continue reading A COVID-19 Vaccine Is Required To Restore Full Public Confidence
There is significant credit risk that is not priced into the markets. Looming credit defaults and downgrades - especially high grade to high yield downgrades ("fallen angles") - are bound to create uncertainty beyond the credit markets. There is significant default and downgrade risk associated with Commercial Real Estate ("CRE") credits. Nobody knows when major … Continue reading Credit Risk Is Substantial and Underestimated
Total non-farm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"). Access our Excel breakdown HERE. Access the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" HERE. Reach us at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com with any questions. click table to expand or download https://open.spotify.com/episode/7jfJcHHQGgV7ODBnX1p0pZ https://youtu.be/ARMMrPigbuQ