We compare COVID-19 to influenza and estimate that the U.S. economy could suffer $60-100 billion in lost wages due to COVID-19.
We used the CDC’s data for the 2018-2019 flu season as a proxy to calculate our COVID-19 estimates. (see our PDF report HERE. Request Excel file at jmaietta@TEK2day.com).
We focused our efforts on the 18-49 and 50-64 age groups. We assumed full employment for each age group.
We assumed 10x the rate of symptomatic illness for COVID-19 as compared to the CDC’s influenza numbers.
We assumed 3 days of lost productivity for those with symptomatic illness and assumed an 8 hour work day.
We applied a mean hourly wage of $24.98 per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We published 2 COVID-19 hourly wage tables. The first assumes that 50% of the population with symptomatic illness takes an hourly wage resulting in $63 billion of lost wages in calendar 2020. The second assumes 75% of the population with symptomatic illness takes an hourly wage which results in $95 billion of lost wages in calendar 2020.
